727
FXUS64 KHUN 051100
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ARE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT PRESENT. NOT
ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH MORE THROUGH THIS MORNING,
AS DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS ALSO
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER A PORTION OF OUR LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE CLOUDS FROM SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS, IN
ADDITION TO WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 MPH, HAVE KEPT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
AT BAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A TROUGHING WEST AND RIDGING EAST UPPER PATTERN CONTINUED OVER
THE GREATER CONUS. EVEN WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING SOUTH OF AL/FL WAS
SPREADING CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE SE STATES, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
(MAINLY OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA). MORE INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST
(SAY BIRMINGHAM AND NORTHWARD), IT WAS TOO DRY IN THE LOW/MID
TROPOSPHERE TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. THIS COULD
CHANGE LATER TODAY, AS MORE OF THIS MOISTURE SEEPS FURTHER INLAND.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO FORM SOUTH OF THE TX/LA
COAST SHOULD REMAIN OVER THAT PORTION OF THE GULF INTO LATE
TONIGHT. A RETURN OF MORE HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE LOW/MID 80S, WITH SE WINDS OF 5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY SHOULD SLOWLY CREEP
INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART WERE
SUGGESTING THAT LOWER END CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURNS SOMETIME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND FV3 WERE RATHER SKIMPY
WITH RAIN COVERAGE. THE NEW NBM RUN HAS KEPT SIMILAR COVERAGE
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...RATHER MILD NIGHT TIME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
DESPITE CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND INTO THE
LOW/MID 80S TUESDAY. THESE VALUES MAY BE A BIT LOWER IF CHANCES OF
SHOWER COVERAGE BECOMES GREATER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOW OVER THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY
BUILD TO THE SW DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. TROUGHING
THAT WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AND MOVE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY THE MID
WEEK. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER-48 TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW LATE
TUESDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-30%), HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MID WEEK SHOULD BE A TAD COOLER INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. A BIT COOLER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50 AND LOWER
60S. AN AIRMASS CHANGE WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION, WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ON THE LOW
SIDE. FOR THE THU-SAT TIMEFRAME, SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH FRI/SAT TRENDING DRY AND WORSEN THE ON-
GOING DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-22
KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LLWS WILL BE ANOTHER
CONCERN AROUND 4-5Z TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH 9-10Z. OUTSIDE OF THESE CONCERNS, MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
PARTICULARLY LATER TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ALSO INCREASE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING FROM THE WEST. AT THIS POINT, HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF
THE TAFS AS IT IS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER,
THIS WILL BE REASSESSED FOR INCLUSION INTO AT LEAST THE MSL TAF
WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page