546
FXUS64 KHUN 051508
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1008 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THE SURFACE MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO TX,
WHILE A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
AMERICA. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY, AND PRESENTLY MAINTAINS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. THIS WILL CHANGE AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, AND STREAMLINES ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. PWS
WILL ALSO INCREASE STEADILY TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST AL INTO MS AND WEST TN WITH 1.75-2.0
INCHES OVERSPREADING THESE AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST LOW
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AND WE CAN'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
MONDAY WITH ADDED HEATING. ALSO, LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ARRIVING TONIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE
80S THIS AFTERNOON, LOWS WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S FOR MOST AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING DEW POINTS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THE FEED OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AL, MS THROUGH WEST TN, WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
GIVEN THE HIGH PWS WITHIN THIS ZONE. RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER EAST OF I-65. AS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST 5H FLOW
PATTERN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY, A WEAK SURFACE-8H
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO TN THROUGH NORTHERN MS. THIS MAY
PIVOT THE DEEP MOISTURE FIELD INTO A MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
FASHION WITH 8H SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 15-20KT PERSISTING. SO A RATHER
PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MS, NORTHWEST AL, TN AND KY ON TUESDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS OF LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOW OVER THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY
BUILD TO THE SW DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. TROUGHING
THAT WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY THE
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER-48 TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA AND MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES (20-30%), HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID WEEK SHOULD BE A
TAD COOLER INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A BIT COOLER WED
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50 AND LOWER 60S. AN AIRMASS CHANGE
WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80, AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION, WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ON THE LOW
SIDE. FOR THE THU-SAT TIMEFRAME, SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH FRI/SAT TRENDING DRY AND WORSEN THE ON-
GOING DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-22
KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LLWS WILL BE ANOTHER
CONCERN AROUND 4-5Z TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH 9-10Z. OUTSIDE OF THESE CONCERNS, MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
PARTICULARLY LATER TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ALSO INCREASE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING FROM THE WEST. AT THIS POINT, HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF
THE TAFS AS IT IS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER,
THIS WILL BE REASSESSED FOR INCLUSION INTO AT LEAST THE MSL TAF
WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26
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