384
FXUS64 KHUN 052358
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVING WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH AIDED BY GUSTY ESE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WITH ESE FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF THE HIGH PREVAILING.
THROUGH THE NIGHT THE ESE FLOW WILL ADVECT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH HREF MODELS SHOWING DEW POINTS
INCREASING FROM THE MID TO LOW 60S TO THE HIGH 60S BY DAY BREAK.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL MEAN OUR RELATIVELY COOL MORNINGS WILL
COME TO AN END TOMORROW AS THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER WILL RESTRICT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE MID TO HIGH 60S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THE FEED OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AL, MS THROUGH WEST TN, WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
GIVEN THE HIGH PWS WITHIN THIS ZONE. RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER EAST OF I-65. AS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST 5H FLOW
PATTERN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY, A WEAK SURFACE-8H
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO TN THROUGH NORTHERN MS. THIS MAY
PIVOT THE DEEP MOISTURE FIELD INTO A MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
FASHION WITH 8H SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 15-20KT PERSISTING. SO A RATHER
PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MS, NORTHWEST AL, TN AND KY ON TUESDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS OF LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOW OVER THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY
BUILD TO THE SW DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. TROUGHING
THAT WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY THE
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER-48 TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA AND MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES (20-30%), HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID WEEK SHOULD BE A
TAD COOLER INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A BIT COOLER WED
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50 AND LOWER 60S. AN AIRMASS CHANGE
WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80, AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION, WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ON THE LOW
SIDE. FOR THE THU-SAT TIMEFRAME, SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH FRI/SAT TRENDING DRY AND WORSEN THE ON-
GOING DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
CONDITIONS AT THE HSV/MSL AIRPORTS REMAIN VFR AT THE CURRENT
TIME, WITH A BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU BTWN 3500-5000 FT BENEATH A
SIMILAR COVERAGE OF CS. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER-BASED CLOUD DECK MAY
TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (RELATED TO A SSE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING
TO 25-35 KNOTS) WILL SUPPORT NORTHWESTWARD EXPANSION OF LIGHT-
MODERATE RAIN INTO NORTHERN AL LATER THIS EVENING, WITH PROB30
GROUPS FOR RA AND TEMPORARY MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS INCLUDED AT BOTH
TERMINALS BTWN 9-15Z. A LAYER OF LOW/MVFR STRATUS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION, AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON EVEN AS THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN BECOMES
DISPLACED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AND WE WILL INDICATE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS
BEYOND 20Z. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM ESE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 5-10 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS, AND LLWS HAS BEEN RETAINED
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...70/DD
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