051
FXUS64 KHUN 061516
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1016 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS COVERING A MAJORITY OF THE SE CONUS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY ESE FLOW ALONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE INDUCED ESE FLOW IS ACTING AS A FAVORABLE
CONVEYOR OF OCEAN MOISTURE INTO THE TN VALLEY. DEW POINTS HAVE
INCREASED TO THE MID TO HIGH 60S AREA WIDE AND BMX 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS PWATS JUST BELOW 2". DESPITE ALL THE MOISTURE, WE ARE
LACKING ANY FORCING TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL OR STORMS. THUS
WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER BENIGN, IF DREARY, START TO THE WEEK. LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
DAY, LIMITING TEMPS TO THE HIGH 70S TO LOW 80S.
CONDITIONS WON'T CHANGE MUCH AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOUR.
CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH DEW POINTS WILL PREVENT US FROM COOLING OFF
TOO MUCH WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE HIGH 60S PRESENT AT DAY BREAK
TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
UNFORTUNATELY TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DREARY DAY HOWEVER AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HEAVIER
RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS. THE APPROACHING FRONT, CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE PLAINS, LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE AMPLE
MOISTURE PRESENT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS OF ESE FLOW WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HOWEVER HIRES MODEL
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS OUR OVERALL QPF NEAR OR JUST ABOVE AN INCH,
HIGHEST IN NW AL. THUS, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR FLOODING
CONCERNS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM THE SW. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE LOOKS LIKELY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BETTER SHEAR RETAINING CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT, THIS WILL CREATE A NARROW WINDOW TOMORROW EVENING WHERE
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND CAPE MAY OVERLAP TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CONVECTIVE RAIN RATES AND GUSTY
WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNSET DECREASING THE CONCERN FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS
OVERNIGHT.
HIRES MODELS SHOW A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP ENDING WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO OUR SE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE
THIS, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE
COMBO OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS BRINING IN COOLER
AIR WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80.
WE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO RETAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NE AL. FORTUNATELY
ONLY LOW (~10%) RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER
THIS COULD INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN NE AL IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN.
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATES WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL IN MID TO HIGH 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGESTS THAT AN INITIALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO A STRONGER TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE
TROUGH, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL BOTH BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THURSDAY
AND PERHAPS FRIDAY, AS WELL. HOWEVER, INCREASING DEEP- LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW (TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC COAST) WILL EVENTUALLY ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY/SUNDAY, WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST. THROUGH THE PERIOD, HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE M-U 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
TRAVERSE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
WEST OF I-65, WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EVEN FARTHER WEST
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE. IN ADDITION, CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY IS LOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
LOOKS TO BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
THEREFORE COMPRISE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING,
ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH, WE'LL KEEP AN
EYE ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS IN CASE THE MVFR CIGS STICK AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NW
AL. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS WELL, PARTICULARLY OVER NW AL. THE OTHER CONCERN ARE
THE ELEVATED WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS IS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...26
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