290
FXUS64 KHUN 070015
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
715 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
PRESENTLY OUR AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE IS BEING BROUGHT INTO
OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF FLOW FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE, RESULTING IN A
LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE. DUE
TO LACK OF FORCING, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FROM LOW (10-20%) TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (30-60%) BY SUNRISE TOMORROW PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS A RESULT OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
WEAK STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE ONGOING SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
WARM WITH THE AREA EXPERIENCING UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DUE TO
INSOLATION FROM HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE. TONIGHT, SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE LOW TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 70 DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SETTING SOME RECORD HIGH
LOWS. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY IN HUNTSVILLE IS 73 AND THE RECORD LOW
FOR TOMORROW IN HUNTSVILLE IS 70. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY IN
MUSCLE SHOALS IS 73 AND THE RECORD LOW FOR TOMORROW IN MUSCLE SHOALS
IS 74.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
UNFORTUNATELY TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DREARY DAY HOWEVER AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HEAVIER
RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS. THE APPROACHING FRONT, CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE PLAINS, LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE AMPLE
MOISTURE PRESENT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS OF ESE FLOW WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HOWEVER HIRES MODEL
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS OUR OVERALL QPF NEAR OR JUST ABOVE AN INCH,
HIGHEST IN NW AL. THUS, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR FLOODING
CONCERNS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM THE SW. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE LOOKS LIKELY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BETTER SHEAR RETAINING CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT, THIS WILL CREATE A NARROW WINDOW TOMORROW EVENING WHERE
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND CAPE MAY OVERLAP TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CONVECTIVE RAIN RATES AND GUSTY
WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNSET DECREASING THE CONCERN FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS
OVERNIGHT.
HIRES MODELS SHOW A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP ENDING WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO OUR SE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE
THIS, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE
COMBO OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS BRINING IN COOLER
AIR WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80.
WE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO RETAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NE AL. FORTUNATELY
ONLY LOW (~10%) RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER
THIS COULD INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN NE AL IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN.
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATES WITH HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL IN MID TO HIGH 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGESTS THAT AN INITIALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO A STRONGER TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE
TROUGH, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL BOTH BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THURSDAY
AND PERHAPS FRIDAY, AS WELL. HOWEVER, INCREASING DEEP- LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW (TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC COAST) WILL EVENTUALLY ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY/SUNDAY, WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST. THROUGH THE PERIOD, HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE M-U 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST
AIRMASS (TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT) THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. THUS, WE EXPECT A SCT-BKN COVERAGE
OF STRATOCU (LARGELY BASED BTWN 3500-5000 FT) TO CONTINUE BENEATH
AN OVERCAST LAYER OF ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS. AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT
(TO OUR NORTHWEST), COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERIODICALLY BE ENHANCED ACROSS OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR BTWN 8-14Z/MSL AND 11-17Z/HSV, WHICH IS WHEN PROB30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR MVFR CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS IN
CONVECTION. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM ESE TO SSW OVER THE COURSE OF
THE PERIOD, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS AND OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...TG
SHORT TERM...RAD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
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