128
FXUS64 KHUN 071503
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1003 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
AN AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EASTERN TN. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND ARE FORECAST
TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
ARE ALL OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT BASED
ON SFC OBS IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS. A FEW CAM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A BRIEF UPTICK IN BOTH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DENSE
CLOUD COVER THAT DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY. THAT BEING SAID EXPECT
A DREARY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE AFORMENTIONED COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AT WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT IS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
GA BY DAYBREAK WED. THEREFORE, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONE
LAST MILD AND HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEEL LIKE FALL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WED IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND THU IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FEEL REFRESHING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BIGGEST WEATHER
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS AN INCREASE IN GRADIENT WINDS IN
BETWEEN THE HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
COAST. WINDS WED AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO GUST 20-25 MPH BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, ENJOY THE FALL WEATHER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
DATA FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH (INITIALLY ACROSS GA/SC) WILL EVOLVE INTO
A RATHER DEEP CLOSED LOW AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE COURSE OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO AN INTENSE HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGGING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND, IT STILL APPEARS AS
IF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY/WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW, WITH LITTLE TO NO OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL (ASIDE
FROM A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON
FRIDAY). HIGHS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE L-M 70S ON FRIDAY INTO
THE U70S-L80S BY MONDAY, WITH PLEASANTLY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE U40S-L50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH KMSL AND KHSV AS INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOWERED CLOUD CEILINGS WILL
PERSISTS WEDNESDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY CAUSING IFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO BOTH SITES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...HC
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