861
FXUS64 KHUN 091053
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
553 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AS MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, DURING WHICH NORMAL HIGHS TYPICALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-25 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A SMALL BUT AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW (CURRENTLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MO) WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALOFT), BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE
MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN. AT THE SURFACE, A STRENGTHENING
HIGH (INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES) WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO, RESULTING IN COLD AIR DAMMING TO THE EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WIND SHIFT
AXIS (MARKING A RETURN TO ENE FLOW) WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA BETWEEN 8-10Z, WITH A BROKEN LAYER OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ITS
WAKE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OF RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (WHERE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT
WILL BE ENHANCED BY FAVORABLY ORIENTED TOPOGRAPHICAL FEATURES).
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S-L50S IN SOUTHERN TN TO THE
M50S IN THE SOUTHEAST, AND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASING
WITH TIME ANY BRIEF DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO WIND-SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WESTWARD, WITH A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS LAYER
IN ITS WAKE RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAT WILL HOLD
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S-L70S (EAST) AND M70S (WEST).
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN COULD OCCUR AT ANY POINT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST), CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINFALL REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN 10%), WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DISPLACED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES, WHERE BOTH INSTABILITY
AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATER.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (THE FEATURE THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY) WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRAVELS
CYCLONICALLY FROM WEST-CENTRAL GA INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC/SC
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS, NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE INTO THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT
CONTRACTS BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR EAST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES, THE ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE, WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT ESE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE-CALM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, AS WE WILL BE
SITUATED WITHIN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, A DECAYING LOW
DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TOMORROW
NIGHT, WE WILL ADVERTISE LOWS IN THE L-M 50S ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER,
WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS, TEMPS IN THE U40S-L50S WILL BE
COMMON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE U60S-L70S
(EAST) TO M-U 70S (WEST).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GLOBAL MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE (LOCATED
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST) WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A MORE COMPACT TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATELY STRONG NNW FLOW
ALOFT PREDICTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION AS A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST. THUS,
WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT WITH A MODEST WARMING
TREND AS AN INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK INTO THE L-M 80S BY MONDAY, WITH LOWS
ALSO RISING INTO THE M-U 50S BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV. A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING AT BOTH SITES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...HC
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