985
FXUS64 KHUN 091629
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1129 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EARLY MORNING TEMPS HAVE SAT
COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA, PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS COULD LINGER ALONG AND
EAST OF I-65. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL ONCE AGAIN TO THE 50S WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG IN AND NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND SHELTERED
AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (THE FEATURE THAT WILL CROSS OUR REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY) WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRAVELS
CYCLONICALLY FROM WEST-CENTRAL GA INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC/SC
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS, NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE INTO THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT
CONTRACTS BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR EAST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES, THE ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE, WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT ESE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE-CALM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, AS WE WILL BE
SITUATED WITHIN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, A DECAYING LOW
DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST. WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TOMORROW
NIGHT, WE WILL ADVERTISE LOWS IN THE L-M 50S ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER,
WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS, TEMPS IN THE U40S-L50S WILL BE
COMMON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE U60S-L70S
(EAST) TO M-U 70S (WEST).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GLOBAL MODELS
STILL INDICATE THAT A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE (LOCATED
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST) WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A MORE COMPACT TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATELY STRONG NNW FLOW
ALOFT PREDICTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION AS A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST. THUS,
WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT WITH A MODEST WARMING
TREND AS AN INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK INTO THE L-M 80S BY MONDAY, WITH LOWS
ALSO RISING INTO THE M-U 50S BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
SCT/BKN DECKS OF 3.5 TO 6 KFT CLOUD DECKS ARE DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NE/ENE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...AMP.24
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