583  
FXUS64 KHUN 122351  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
651 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 80S  
IN SOME URBAN AREAS. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED  
TO AROUND 10 TO 12 MPH FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. WITH SOME  
MIXING WHERE TEMPERATURES REACHED THE 79 TO 83 DEGREE RANGE,  
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO BETWEEN 30 AND  
35 PERCENT. WE COULD SEE A SLIGHTLY LOWER DROP IN RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY A FEW LOCATIONS BEFORE SUNSET.  
 
WINDS SHOULD STILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWING  
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. EXPECT MORE PATCHY FOG,  
SOME POSSIBLY DENSE TO RETURN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE  
DAYBREAK HOURS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY AND  
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY. EXPECT SIMILAR LOWS TO LAST NIGHT DROPPING  
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER  
THE TEXAS AND EXPANDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND PUSHING  
HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S AT LEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
WITH THE AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN GUIDANCE,  
WONDERING IF MODELS ARE USING TOO MUCH CLIMATOLOGY TO COME UP WITH  
HOW WARM IT WILL BE. THE TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL IN  
CURRENT GUIDANCE. THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST  
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A FEW  
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 IN REALITY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DRY THROUGH THAT PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS  
CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH INCREASED LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THE REMAINDER OF NEXT  
WEEK, BUT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. HIGHS  
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET BACK INTO THE MID 80S AT LEAST. SOME CLOUD  
COVER MIGHT BEGIN TO TEMPER HIGHS A TAD. BASED ON THE PATTERN  
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THOUGH.  
 
MODELS TRY TO PUSH A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS  
HAVE THIS TROUGH AXIS FALLING APART AS IT ATTEMPTS TO DO SO.  
 
MODELS MOVE A POTENTIALLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS  
AND UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY. THIS REALLY SEEMS TO DISPLACE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
AND DEVELOP AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE INCREASED SHEAR AND FORCING IN  
PLACE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL COLD FRONT AS WELL. THOUGH  
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW, THERE IS ENOUGH THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE  
THREAT MIGHT MATERIALIZE AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  
HOWEVER, IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY MORE THAN THAT. HIGHER SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST BASED ON THESE  
EXPECTATIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025  
 
CONDITIONS FEATURING CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NNE WIND WILL  
CONTINUE AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS THIS EVENING, WITH A MINOR  
INCREASE IN THIN/HIGH-LVL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS  
WINDS ALOFT BACK FROM NNE TO NNW. WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED FOR  
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG WILL  
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BY 4Z (IN VALLEYS) AND BY 8Z (INVOF THE  
TERMINALS), AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY  
REDUCTIONS AT BOTH AIRPORTS BTWN 8-12Z. A FEW FAIR-WEATHER CU WILL  
DEVELOP BY 15Z MONDAY (BENEATH AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF CI),  
WITH NNE WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 5-10 KTS AROUND THIS TIME, AS  
WELL.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...KTW  
SHORT TERM...KTW  
LONG TERM...KTW  
AVIATION...70/DD  
 
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