352
FXUS64 KHUN 131637
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1137 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE IN THE LOWER 70S PRIMARILY. THIS
MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES AFTER ALL.
SOME MIXING ALOFT OF DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR OVER THE
PAST HOUR TO LOWER DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY. EXPECT THAT TO REALLY PICK
UP AS TEMPERATURES REACH 75 DEGREES AND HIGHER. BE CAREFUL IF
DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING THIS AFTERNOON, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES COULD DROP TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT.
MODELS HINT AT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
AFFECT NW PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FOG
DEVELOP IN SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NE ALABAMA AGAIN TONIGHT,
WITH SOME ISOLATED PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO THIS WEEK.
THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH OVER TEXAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUESDAY AND CONTROL MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME. THAT WILL MEAN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE 80
TO 85 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST AREAS OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A RESULT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHOULD BRING MORE LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS WELL. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S GENERALLY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES ESE AND WEAKENS SOME TOWARD THE END OF
THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE CENTER/AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD, SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM DESPITE THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH MORNING LOWS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A BREAK IN THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE SHEAR AND FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY (EVEN ELEVATED) IS NOT VERY
CERTAIN. OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WETTER PERIOD.
PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 INCHES AND FORCING IS FAIRLY
DEEP AND STRONG AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. SO HEAVY RAINFALL MIGHT
BECOME A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN, THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COULD
BE AN ISSUE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HELP CONTINUE VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY. WHILE PATCHY GROUND
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING, CHANCES FOR IT ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF SHOULD BECOME
NORTHERLY 5-10KT IN THE LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING MAY YIELD A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS, BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TO LOW TO WARRANT A
MENTION. DID ADD A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE MODELS MORE STRONGLY SHOWING THAT POSSIBILITY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RSB
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