104
FXUS64 KHUN 131810
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
110 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. OVERALL MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. THAT BEING SAID, WE STILL COULD GET
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT A BIT MORE MAYBE INTO THE 46 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE
IN SOME LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD STILL DROP TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT IN A FEW LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
MODELS HINT AT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
AFFECT NW PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FOG
DEVELOP IN SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NE ALABAMA AGAIN TONIGHT,
WITH SOME ISOLATED PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO THIS WEEK.
THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH OVER TEXAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUESDAY AND CONTROL MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME. THAT WILL MEAN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE 80
TO 85 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST AREAS OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A RESULT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHOULD BRING MORE LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS WELL. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S GENERALLY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES ESE AND WEAKENS SOME TOWARD THE END OF
THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE CENTER/AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD, SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM DESPITE THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH MORNING LOWS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A BREAK IN THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE SHEAR AND FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY (EVEN ELEVATED) IS NOT VERY
CERTAIN. OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WETTER PERIOD.
PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 INCHES AND FORCING IS FAIRLY
DEEP AND STRONG AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. SO HEAVY RAINFALL MIGHT
BECOME A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN, THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COULD
BE AN ISSUE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP EVEN PATCHY FOG FROM AFFECTING EITHER TERMINAL. WINDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page