907  
FXUS64 KHUN 140348  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
1048 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM  
 
   
NEAR TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH AS IT DEVELOPS  
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE RED RIVER  
VALLEY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW  
ALOFT OF 15-20 KNOTS AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN RIM OF THE RIDGE WILL  
MAINTAIN DRY PROFILES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, AND THIS IN  
CONJUNCTION WITH BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A  
CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS,  
A LIGHT NNE WIND WILL PERSIST REGION-WIDE THIS EVENING, AS A  
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  
HOWEVER, A MINOR INCREASE IN WINDS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL  
START TO EXPERIENCE AN IMPACT FROM A HIGH THAT WILL SPREAD EAST-  
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER IN THE WAKE OF A  
DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY CONFINE THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG TO WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS  
ACROSS NORTHEAST AL/SOUTHERN TN AS TEMPS DESCEND INTO THE L-M 50S.  
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO VALUES OBSERVED  
TODAY, RANGING FROM THE L-M 70S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE  
U70S-L80S IN THE VALLEY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH (INITIALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE RED  
RIVER VALLEY) WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE SHORT  
TERM PERIOD, AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.  
THIS CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM  
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY, THAT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THURSDAY  
NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE (EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE HIGH)  
TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AT THE  
SURFACE, A WEAKENING HIGH (INITIALLY CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO-  
MINNESOTA BORDER) WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT-MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AS THIS OCCURS. THUS, WE EXPECT THE  
DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE, WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN  
DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE DIURNAL WARMING/NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLES.  
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EACH DAY, HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO  
THE L-M 80S FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY BY THURSDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN  
IN L-M 50S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, BUT MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES  
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM A  
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE  
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA) AND A LOWER  
LATITUDE DISTURBANCE, WHICH WILL TRAVEL CYCLONICALLY (IN THE FLOW  
AROUND THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH) FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW  
WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A  
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST.  
HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC ON  
SATURDAY, RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A LEE CYCLONE (INITIALLY  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS) DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MO IN  
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOWER-LATITUDE WAVE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE  
THAT THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE MOST  
PRONOUNCED TO THE WEST OF OUR CWFA, BUT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND  
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE WEST.  
 
THE SURFACE LOW IS PREDICTED TO DEEPEN AT A MORE CONSIDERABLE  
RATE AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM MO INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON  
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGS  
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH  
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR SATURDAY AFTERNOON,  
WHICH SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING QLCS  
SATURDAY EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM  
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EARLY  
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE PARENT TROUGH  
THIS TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FORWARD. WITH MID- LEVEL WSW  
FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 50-60 KNOT RANGE BY SATURDAY  
NIGHT, A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO 40-45 KNOTS  
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, THE QLCS WILL  
LIKELY BE ENCOUNTERING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS AS IT  
PROGRESSES ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH VERY LOW CAPE REDUCING THE  
OVERALL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT).  
THUS, IT APPEARS AS IF THE RISK FOR STRONG- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AL (WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY  
REACH THE L-M 60S PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE QLCS), AND THIS IS  
IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY  
MACHINE-LEARNING TOOL. REGARDLESS OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE,  
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM (INCLUDING STRONG GRADIENT  
WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL) WILL BE  
EXPERIENCED REGION-WIDE.  
 
LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS THE  
EJECTING CYCLONES COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
THE CWFA. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY  
NIGHT AND MONDAY, AS A MODIFIED NORTH PACIFIC AIRMASS (FEATURING  
DEWPOINTS IN THE U30S-L40S) SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL  
FALL BACK INTO THE L-M 70S SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT  
IN THE M-U 40S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
VFR/SKC WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AL FOR THE DURATION OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD, AS DEEP-LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN  
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL  
CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG IN  
LOCAL VALLEYS BTWN 8-12Z, WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN DEWPOINT  
DEPRESSIONS THIS EVENING BEFORE INCLUDING VSBY REDUCTIONS IN THE  
TAFS. SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM NNE ARND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT, WITH  
WINDS PREDICTED TO VEER TO NE AND INCREASE TO 8G16 KTS BY 15Z.  
 
 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...70/DD  
SHORT TERM...70/DD  
LONG TERM...70/DD  
AVIATION...70/DD  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab AL Page
The Nexlab TN Page
Main Text Page