807
FXUS64 KHUN 141107
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
607 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A NOR'EASTER
TYPE SYSTEM THAT WAS OFF OF THE EAST COAST THE PAST FEW DAYS, WAS
FINALLY MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS WAS ALSO AMPLIFYING WHILE IT BUILT TO THE NE. THIS
UPPER HIGH, ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER-48, SHOULD HELP CONTINUE THE DRY AND MILD TREND
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY.
OTHERWISE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS, 4 AM
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN WINCHESTER
TO 62 IN MUSCLE SHOALS. AND IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR
(LONGER AUTUMN NIGHTS, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS) IS A
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. PER OBSERVATIONS, MOST OF THIS FOG WAS
WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND SOME RIVER VALLEYS.
AS FAR AS FOG, AM EXPECTING IT TO REMAIN IN THOSE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTERWARDS, IT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT MIXING. WITH AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOWING
A CLOUDLESS PROFILE, AM EXPECTING ANOTHER SUNNY DAY TO START AN
ABBREVIATED WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO MID 70S
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S VALLEYS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS, SHOULD
BECOME N-NE AT 5-10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH (INITIALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY) WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD, AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
THIS CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY, THAT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE (EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE HIGH)
TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAKENING HIGH (INITIALLY CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO-
MINNESOTA BORDER) WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT-MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AS THIS OCCURS. THUS, WE EXPECT THE
DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE, WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN
DEWPOINTS DUE TO THE DIURNAL WARMING/NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLES.
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EACH DAY, HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO
THE L-M 80S FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY BY THURSDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN
IN L-M 50S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, BUT MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA) AND A LOWER
LATITUDE DISTURBANCE, WHICH WILL TRAVEL CYCLONICALLY (IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH) FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST.
HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY, RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A LEE CYCLONE (INITIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS) DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MO IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOWER-LATITUDE WAVE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED TO THE WEST OF OUR CWFA, BUT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE WEST.
THE SURFACE LOW IS PREDICTED TO DEEPEN AT A MORE CONSIDERABLE
RATE AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM MO INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING QLCS
SATURDAY EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE PARENT TROUGH
THIS TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FORWARD. WITH MID- LEVEL WSW
FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 50-60 KNOT RANGE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO 40-45 KNOTS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, THE QLCS WILL
LIKELY BE ENCOUNTERING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH VERY LOW CAPE REDUCING THE
OVERALL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS (ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT).
THUS, IT APPEARS AS IF THE RISK FOR STRONG- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AL (WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY
REACH THE L-M 60S PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE QLCS), AND THIS IS
IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY
MACHINE-LEARNING TOOL. REGARDLESS OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE,
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM (INCLUDING STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL) WILL BE
EXPERIENCED REGION-WIDE.
LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS THE
EJECTING CYCLONES COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CWFA. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, AS A MODIFIED NORTH PACIFIC AIRMASS (FEATURING
DEWPOINTS IN THE U30S-L40S) SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE L-M 70S SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE M-U 40S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY, AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTROLS THE WEATHER. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME N-NE 5-10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15 KT
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KT BY THE
EARLY EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....70/DD
LONG TERM....70/DD
AVIATION...RSB
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