977  
FXUS64 KHUN 142245  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
545 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 544 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
- HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A LOW  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
- AREA WIDE RAINFALL OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE U70S-L80S. OVERALL  
MIXING IS NOT AS STRONG AS INITIALLY EXPECTED, BUT MINIMUM RH  
VALUES MAY STILL DROP INTO THE 30-40% RANGE. WINDS WILL DECREASE  
AFTER SUNSET, BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 5-10 MPH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP  
FOG POTENTIAL LOW OUTSIDE OF SHELTERED VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES  
TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE M50S-U50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECTION MORE LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE AXIS OF  
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ON  
WEDNESDAY CLIMB TO BETWEEN 19 AND 21 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER, HIGHS WILL LIKELY HIT THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE  
RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE  
TENNESSEE. LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE 55 TO  
60 DEGREE RANGE.  
 
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BRIEFLY ADVECTS INTO THE AREA DURING  
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE  
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S OR 80-85  
DEGREE RANGE THEN.  
 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY, A  
SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS BRINGS MORE  
MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY  
BRING AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. 925 MB  
HEIGHTS INCREASE IN MOST MODELS TO BETWEEN 19 AND 22 DEGREES IN  
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES MUCH  
GIVEN HOW HIGH AND THIN THEY LOOK IN MODEL PROGS. THUS, INCREASED  
HIGHS A BIT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERIC  
SOUNDING STILL LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ON  
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH OR  
SOUTHEAST SHOULD STRENGTHEN THOUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW  
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON CLOUD COVER AND THE  
EVOLUTION OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH  
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL  
CANADA. THOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER ON  
SATURDAY, NOT SURE IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR VERY THICK THIS FAR  
SOUTH YET. HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY CLOUDY  
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO RAMP  
UP SHEAR AHEAD OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AS IT PUSHES INTO THE  
LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREAS SATURDAY EVENING. FORCING  
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH WELL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TO BEGIN  
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE  
AREA. INSTABILITY DOESN'T LOOK TO IMPRESSIVE (LESS THAN 500 J/KG).  
HOWEVER, SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY AND MAYBE A STRONG STORM OR TWO.  
 
SHEAR ONLY STRENGTHENS AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND  
SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES INTO GEORGIA EITHER DURING  
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OR JUST AFTER NOON. NEWEST GUIDANCE DOES  
SHOW BETWEEN 200 AND 600 J/KG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT AND SOME HELICITY AS WELL. SO, A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SOME  
SEVERE STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE AT LEAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT  
PERIOD.  
 
DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE FRONT IS STILL IN NORTHERN ALABAMA AROUND  
NOON, WILL DETERMINE IF WE HAVE A MORE PRONOUNCED SEVERE WEATHER  
THREAT IT LOOKS LIKE. MODELS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR KEEP AMPLE  
SHEAR AROUND THROUGH THAT TIME NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS  
ALSO HINT AT A INSTABILITY RECOVERY IN EASTERN ALABAMA AS WELL  
(CAPE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG) POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. IF THAT  
OCCURS AND THE FRONT HAS NOT PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA YET, A MORE  
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE  
EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS  
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING BY TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...KTW  
SHORT TERM....KTW  
LONG TERM....KTW  
AVIATION...GH  
 
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