163
FXUS64 KHUN 150253
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
953 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 953 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR UP TO 1-1.5" OF RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
- LOW CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
BRINGING THREATS OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUICKLY FROM THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AS OF 9PM. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5MPH THROUGH
THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY FOG FORMATION.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS A
RESULT, SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DURING THE DAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN MAKE FOR A BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 15MPH.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. BY THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS,
HOWEVER, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGING ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FEATURE
GETS, BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
WHILE THIS FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO COOL US DOWN VERY MUCH, IT WILL
BRING IN A REINFORCEMENT OF DRIER AIR ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AL
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE,
BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING BACK SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA, WHICH WILL BE A BIG
CHANGE AFTER SEVERAL BLUE SKY DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
OUR PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW DUE TO A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED
INSTABILITY, HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST AT
THIS TIME, STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIALLY GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1.7-1.9" RANGE, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE/ON ROADWAYS. BE SURE TO USE
CAUTION IF DRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 1-1.5" THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
FORCING DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK)
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO 50S. THIS IS CONSIDERED MORE
SEASONALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...GH
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