352  
FXUS64 KHUN 151115  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
615 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 953 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY EVENING,  
ALLOWING FOR UP TO 1-1.5" OF RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY.  
 
- LOW CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,  
BRINGING THREATS OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM  
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED OVER THE RED RIVER REGION WILL BUILD  
A BIT MORE TO THE NE TODAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH BROAD  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP MAINTAIN  
DRY CONDITIONS. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, MOST STATIONS TO SOME  
EXTENT HAVE HAD A LIGHT WIND IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS MIXING DESPITE  
CLEAR SKIES AND LONG NIGHTS, HAS RESTRICTED MOST FOG DEVELOPMENT  
ACROSS THE AREA. IT HOWEVER WAS OCCURRING IN SOME OF THE MORE WIND  
SHELTERED VALLEYS, AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. AREA TEMPERATURES AT  
3 AM RANGED FROM 50 TO AROUND 60.  
 
THERE WAS LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE EVIDENT VIA SATELLITE OR IN AREA  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THUS WE SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. WITH  
DIRECT SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS, HIGH  
TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT  
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE AT 5-10 MPH. HOWEVER LIKE  
YESTERDAY, SOME HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS STRONGER  
WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLE NIGHT IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AS  
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S  
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. BY THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS,  
HOWEVER, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT  
NUDGING ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS  
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FEATURE  
GETS, BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.  
WHILE THIS FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO COOL US DOWN VERY MUCH, IT WILL  
BRING IN A REINFORCEMENT OF DRIER AIR ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AL  
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH  
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.  
 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY  
FLOW RETURNS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE,  
BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS  
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO  
BRING BACK SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA, WHICH WILL BE A BIG  
CHANGE AFTER SEVERAL BLUE SKY DAYS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
OUR PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A  
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD  
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY, MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH THE  
ASSISTANCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW DUE TO A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM  
EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED  
INSTABILITY, HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRONG  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST AT  
THIS TIME, STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIALLY GUSTY  
WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE  
1.7-1.9" RANGE, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX  
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF  
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE/ON ROADWAYS. BE SURE TO USE  
CAUTION IF DRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 1-1.5" THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,  
FORCING DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK)  
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS  
DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO 50S. THIS IS CONSIDERED MORE  
SEASONALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY, AS  
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTROL THE WEATHER. LIGHT  
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME N-NE, 5-10KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15KT  
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KT IN THE EARLY  
EVENING.  
 
 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...RSB  
SHORT TERM....GH  
LONG TERM....HC  
AVIATION...RSB  
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