211
FXUS64 KHUN 152238
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
538 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1003 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE, AFTERNOON
HIGHS HAVE WARMED INTO THE HIGH 70S TO LOW 80S. THE MILD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND GIVE
WAY TO A COOL NIGHT. WHILE MODELS SHOW WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 4-8
KTS, WINDS HAVE BEEN LOWER THAN FORECAST ALL DAY TODAY. THUS
PREVIOUS THOUGHTS OF NOT HAVING TO DEAL WITH FOG TONIGHT ARE LESS
CERTAIN NOW. WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVERNIGHT, ANY LOCATIONS
THAT SEE CALM WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG FORMATION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOWS IN
THE MID TO HIGH 50S. DEW POINTS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 50S
PROVIDING REASONABLE LOWEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD WINDS
CALM OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS
WE REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND COMPRESS OVER THE SE AS IT BECOMES MUSHED
BETWEEN A BUILDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND A DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES
AND WARM DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. BY FRIDAY WE WILL FIND
OURSELF ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE INVITING SE FLOW BACK
INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE A WEAK MOISTURE CONVEYOR
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DEW POINTS
LOOK TO RETURN TO THE LOW 60S WITH PWATS NEAR 1.3-1.5" (BETWEEN
THE 75 AND 90TH PERCENTILE FOR BMX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY). DESPITE
THE INCREASED MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PLEASANT ON
SATURDAY WITH WINDS LIKELY BEING THE ONLY INDICATOR OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS, GRADIENT WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
DETAILS DISCUSSED BELOW IN THE LONG TERM. WE WILL WORK ON REFINING
THE DETAILS REGARDING OUR SEVERE AND FLOODING RISK AS THE PERIOD
MOVES INTO HIRES MODEL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
OUR PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW DUE TO A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
EAST OF THE TN VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED
INSTABILITY, HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST AT
THIS TIME, STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIALLY GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
1.7-1.9" RANGE, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER BMX
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE/ON ROADWAYS. BE SURE TO USE
CAUTION IF DRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 1-1.5" THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
FORCING DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK)
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO 50S. THIS IS CONSIDERED MORE
SEASONALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...GH
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