953
FXUS64 KHUN 160400
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1100 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 939 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- GUSTY WINDS 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT ANOTHER
TRANQUIL EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN WINDS REMAINING AROUND 5MPH THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. CLEAR
SKIES WILL WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON UP INTO THE LOWER
80S, WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
WE BEGIN A GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PUSHES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. CLOSER TO HOME, SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF TO
OCCUR. SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S .
HOWEVER, IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
OUR LONG STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER COMES TO END SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
DRAPED TO ITS SOUTH THAT IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO BEGIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LOW AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. IF ANY STRONG STORMS
DO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN GIVEN GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER, FORECAST INSTABILITY
REMAINS QUITE LOW LIMITING THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTION.
FLOODING THREAT APPEARS LOW AS WELL GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, EXPECT GRADIENT WINDS TO
INCREASE 20-25 MPH ON SUNDAY. THESE WILL BE USHERING IN ANOTHER
FALL AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE FALL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN PRECIP GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...AMP.24
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