594  
FXUS64 KHUN 160805  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
305 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
   
..NEW NEAR TERM
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 939 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
- HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
WITH LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  
 
- GUSTY WINDS 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NO  
WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE TO THE GREATER TENNESSEE VALLEY, FOR THE  
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. 3 AM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN  
ALABAMA AND ADJACENT MIDDLE TENNESSEE RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO  
LOWER 60S WITH LIGHT N-NE WINDS.  
 
FOR TODAY, ALMOST A CARBON COPY TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY FAR AS  
A SENSIBLE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL START  
WEAKENING AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING. BUT IT'S INFLUENCE WILL  
REMAIN, LIKELY KEEPING A STRING OF CLEAR DAYS GOING. THE SATELLITE  
VIEW OVER IA/WI INDICATED SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE ROUNDING THE  
NORTHERN EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGING TO THE THE SOUTH. FORECAST TRENDS  
AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS MOISTURE SHOULD NOT REACH THE  
AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING. THUS ANOTHER WARM, SUNNY MID OCTOBER DAY  
IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE UPPER 70S  
HIGHER TERRAIN, TO LOW/MID 80S VALLEYS. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING  
SHOULD BECOME NE AT 5-10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
WE BEGIN A GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WORKWEEK INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
PUSHES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG  
DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. CLOSER TO HOME, SOUTHERLY FLOW  
RETURNS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF TO  
OCCUR. SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S .  
HOWEVER, IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO  
THE LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
OUR LONG STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER COMES TO END SATURDAY NIGHT AS A  
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT  
DRAPED TO ITS SOUTH THAT IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO BEGIN LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. CHANCES  
FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LOW AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. IF ANY STRONG STORMS  
DO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY  
CONCERN GIVEN GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER, FORECAST INSTABILITY  
REMAINS QUITE LOW LIMITING THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTION.  
FLOODING THREAT APPEARS LOW AS WELL GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF  
THE FRONT AND THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, EXPECT GRADIENT WINDS TO  
INCREASE 20-25 MPH ON SUNDAY. THESE WILL BE USHERING IN ANOTHER  
FALL AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE FALL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH  
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE  
70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER  
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY  
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT  
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN PRECIP GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD  
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...RSB  
SHORT TERM....GH  
LONG TERM....GH  
AVIATION...AMP  
 
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