002  
FXUS64 KHUN 170459  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
1159 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 855 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
- HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY  
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  
 
- GUSTY WINDS 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. IT IS A  
GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THIS DRY AIR MASS AND A  
CLEAR SKY. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MORE  
OF THE SAME DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS.  
AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLE SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB  
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY  
NIGHT, INDUCING A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST  
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, THIS DRIER CONTINENTAL  
AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AND MOISTEN AS SEEN BY DEWPOINTS RISING INTO  
THE LOW TO MID 60S BY MID-AFTERNOON (COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING  
FORCING HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID 80S). A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH WILL  
EJECT INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (BECOMING  
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES SO), FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH  
THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE  
TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL PLAY A BIG FACTOR ON THE POTENTIAL  
FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WE'LL DESTABILIZE DURING THE  
DAY, BUT A CAPPING INVERSION WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. THE SHEAR  
PROFILE DOES FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A  
LINE OF STORMS -- BUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED,  
ESPECIALLY IF IT MOVES INTO THE REGION WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
AS OF RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN TIMING WOULD 06-12Z  
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION -- WITH PERHAPS AN HOUR OR  
TWO EARLIER START IF THE FRONT PROGRESSES FASTER. GIVEN SOME OF  
THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OVERNIGHT, SPC HAS  
PLACED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL  
1/5). EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
REGION, EXITING BY EARLY TO MID SUNDAY MORNING. IN WAKE OF THIS  
FRONT, A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THIS IN THE SECTION BELOW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN  
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO  
DISSIPATE. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR AN  
EXCELLENT SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL  
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. QUITE THE CHILLY START FOR THE NEW  
WORK WEEK MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD  
BACK INTO THE ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER  
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDERNEATH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. A SECOND  
SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, SENDING  
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR (ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD COVER  
AND VERY LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS). HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN, BUT THIS COOL, DRY AIR MASS WILL  
SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO  
LOWER 70S AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD  
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY  
ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...AMP  
SHORT TERM....AMP  
LONG TERM....AMP  
AVIATION...AMP.24  
 
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