294
FXUS64 KHUN 171123
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 324 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
- SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN INTENSITY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH IN PART HELPED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WAS ON A WEAKENING TREND, FLATTENING TO
THE SOUTH. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING AND HEADING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR PARTS OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
BEFORE THEN, EXPECT MORE MID OCTOBER WARMTH AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S WITH
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY 5-10 MPH. SOME HIGHER ALTITUDE
MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN CREEPING IN THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING A FEW
DAYS STREAK OF CLOUDLESS DAYS THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE AFORMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWER-48. THIS TROUGH WILL TAKE ON NEUTRAL TO A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS WE GO INTO LATE SATURDAY AND ON SUNDAY. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS, WILL HELP
BEGIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
SAT EVENING. THIS SYSTEM AS FORMS AND MOVES TO THE NE WILL BEGIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SAT. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SAT, WITH IT REACHING WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE IN DAY AND IN THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD THEN SWEEP IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER ACROSS THE AREA
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
TIMING FROM THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ONE ANOTHER. THEY WERE HINTING AT THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT OF SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO THREAT IS LOW, GIVEN THAT
ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
MORE OVER NW ALABAMA, WITH THE RISK LOWER AS ONE MOVES TO THE
EAST. ALSO TIMING OF THE STRONGER STORMS IS IN THE LATE NIGHT
(WITH THE WEAKEST HEATING POTENTIAL), THAT WILL HELP IN TEMPERING
OVERALL INTENSITY. AND THIS SYSTEM'S MAIN SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES THAN THE OHIO RIVER, WHICH HELPS
SOMEWHAT LESSEN A SEVERE THREAT.
WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE, EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLOUDINESS OCCURS, SATURDAY COULD FEATURE VERY WARM MID OCTOBER
CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S, NOT AS WARM AS STANDING
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 90. WINDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ROUNDING THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN, BRINGING
NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUN SHOULD ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70, WITH NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND
STRONGER GUSTS. SHOWERS IN PROGRESS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
EXCELLENT SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. QUITE THE CHILLY START FOR THE NEW
WORK WEEK MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDERNEATH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, SENDING
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR (ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
AND VERY LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS). HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN, BUT THIS COOL, DRY AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF. LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KT IN THE LATE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SYSTEM FORMS WELL
TO THE WEST.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...RSB
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