754
FXUS64 KHUN 171831
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
131 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- WIND GUSTS (OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS) 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL HOLDING FIRM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
TODAY. TEMPERATURES AT 10 AM HAVE RISEN INTO THE 69 TO 72 DEGREE
RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
AN AREA OF VERY HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN OVER PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI PUSHING QUICKLY EAST THIS MORNING.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS MOISTURE. THEY
MOVE THIS CLOUD COVER EAST QUICKLY TODAY, AFFECTING NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MORE TOWARDS NOON INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE
VERY HIGH AND THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUD OVER, NOT SURE IT WILL
IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AID
ADVECTION INCREASING. SEVERAL MODELS WARM 935 MB TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 20 TO 22 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.
DESPITE CLOUD COVER THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 84 TO 87 DEGREE RANGE
(MAYBE CLOSE TO 89 IN THE FLORENCE/MUSCLE SHOALS AREA). EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO TEXAS
TONIGHT AND THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EASTERN COAST,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER 10 MPH POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER, ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S PRIMARILY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE AFORMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWER-48. THIS TROUGH WILL TAKE ON NEUTRAL TO A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS WE GO INTO LATE SATURDAY AND ON SUNDAY. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS, WILL HELP
BEGIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
SAT EVENING. THIS SYSTEM AS FORMS AND MOVES TO THE NE WILL BEGIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
RESPONSE AS WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SAT,
WITH IT REACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY
EVENING BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD THEN
SWEEP IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
EXITING THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM ON SUN MORNING.
TIMING FROM THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ONE ANOTHER. THEY WERE HINTING AT THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAINLY IN BETWEEN THE MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM TIMEFRAME. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
A TORNADO THREAT IS LOW, GIVEN THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER A
NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SURFACE BASED CAPE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP
PRODUCE SHORT-LIVED FAIRLY WEAK QLCS TORNADOES ON THIS LINE RIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE MORE OVER EXTREME NW ALABAMA, WITH THE RISK LOWER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. TIMING
REMAINS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR AS MUCH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WHICH THE NEWER RUNS HAVE HINTED AT.
WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE, EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLOUDINESS OCCURS, SATURDAY COULD FEATURE VERY WARM MID OCTOBER
CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S, NOT AS WARM AS STANDING
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 90. WINDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ROUNDING THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN, BRINGING
NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUN SHOULD ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70, WITH NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND
STRONGER GUSTS. SHOWERS IN PROGRESS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
EXCELLENT SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. QUITE THE CHILLY START FOR THE NEW
WORK WEEK MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDERNEATH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, SENDING
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR (ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
AND VERY LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS). HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN, BUT THIS COOL, DRY AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME VFR CIGS
MAY IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
LEFT OUT FOR NOW. WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS PRIMARILY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KTW
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