312
FXUS64 KHUN 172016
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
316 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- WIND GUSTS (OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS) 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
HIGH CLOUDS ARE FINALLY MOVING INTO NW ALABAMA IN EARNEST AT THIS
HOUR. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85 DEGREES ARE SEEN
IN AREA OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT WE COULD SEE THEM CLIMB A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN SPOTS (MAINLY SW AREAS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA) INTO THE 85
TO 87 DEGREE RANGE TYPICAL HOT SPOTS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 5 MPH
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO BEGIN TO DROP OFF
AFTER SUNSET, BUT THEN PICK UP LATE TONIGHT TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10
MPH.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE AFORMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWER-48. THIS TROUGH WILL TAKE ON NEUTRAL TO A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS WE GO INTO LATE SATURDAY AND ON SUNDAY. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS, WILL HELP
BEGIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
SAT EVENING. THIS SYSTEM AS FORMS AND MOVES TO THE NE WILL BEGIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
RESPONSE AS WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SAT,
WITH IT REACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY
EVENING BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD THEN
SWEEP IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
EXITING THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM ON SUN MORNING.
TIMING FROM THE MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ONE ANOTHER. THEY WERE HINTING AT THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAINLY IN BETWEEN THE MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM TIMEFRAME. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
A TORNADO THREAT IS LOW, GIVEN THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER A
NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SURFACE BASED CAPE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP
PRODUCE SHORT-LIVED FAIRLY WEAK QLCS TORNADOES ON THIS LINE RIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE MORE OVER EXTREME NW ALABAMA, WITH THE RISK LOWER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA. TIMING
REMAINS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR AS MUCH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WHICH THE NEWER RUNS HAVE HINTED AT.
WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE, EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLOUDINESS OCCURS, SATURDAY COULD FEATURE VERY WARM MID OCTOBER
CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S, NOT AS WARM AS STANDING
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 90. WINDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ROUNDING THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN, BRINGING
NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUN SHOULD ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70, WITH NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND
STRONGER GUSTS. SHOWERS IN PROGRESS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD
COVER BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. QUITE THE
CHILLY START FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDERNEATH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
A SECOND RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVED EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY, SENDING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A BETTER
SHOT OF FROST LOOKS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY. WE LIKELY WILL SEE A BETTER SHOT OF SOME WIDESPREAD
FROST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WE SHOULD
WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AGAIN IN MOST AREAS. LOWS
WILL WARM AS WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AS A DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE AREA VIA ZONAL FLOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME VFR CIGS
MAY IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
LEFT OUT FOR NOW. WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS PRIMARILY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page