875
FXUS64 KHUN 180555
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- WIND GUSTS (OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS) 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AGAIN THIS EVENING,
WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH A LIGHT SSE
BREEZE. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTING OFF
TO THE EAST, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE
THANKS TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP TO MODIFY
THE AIR MASS AS SEEN BY DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S BY
THE AFTERNOON. AMPLE HEATING SHOULD AGAIN HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF
A FORCING MECHANISM, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE DAY.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM TIMEFRAME FROM WEST TO EAST --
GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES
JUST A TOUCH FASTER OR SLOWER. STILL, THE OVERNIGHT TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE WILL MEAN THE THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS A
FAIRLY APPRECIABLE CAPPING INVERSION REDEVELOPS AFTER SUNSET. THE
SHEAR PROFILE DOES FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, LIKELY IN THE FORM
OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE ELEVATED. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A VERY LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO.
GIVEN SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
OVERNIGHT, SPC HAS PLACED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5).
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION, EXITING BY EARLY TO MID SUNDAY MORNING. WE'LL NOTICE AN
AIR MASS CHANGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS NORTHERLY FLOW BRING IN THIS
COOL/DRY AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING -- WITH SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE MID 70S BY THE AFTERNOON
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY,
SENDING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A FAIRLY STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOL, DRY AIR
MASS WILL SETTLE IN. AS A RESULT, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WE
MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY VEER TO SSW PRIOR TO 12Z, WITH A NOTABLE
INCREASE TO 10G18 KTS EXPECTED BY 14Z. THIS WILL OCCUR IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A SCT CU FIELD (BASED ARND 4 KFT)
THAT SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 22Z. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET PROGRESSIVELY INCREASES TO 15-25 KTS, IT APPEARS AS
IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHEAST AL AND
WE WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. DEVELOPMENT OF A
LOWER STRATUS LAYER IS PREDICTED TO OCCUR BY 2Z/MSL AND 4Z/HSV AS
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WITH SSW WINDS AT THE 850-MB LAYER
PREDICTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 45-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING,
LLWS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN BOTH TAFS. A BAND OF MOD-HVY RAIN (AND
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED TSRA) WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT MSL BY 5-6Z, WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED EVEN IN THE POTENTIAL ABSENCE OF
LIGHTNING/THUNDER.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM...AMP
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...70/DD
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