782  
FXUS64 KHUN 181146  
AFDHUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL  
646 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 315 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY  
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  
 
- WIND GUSTS (OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS) OF 20-30 MPH ARE  
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
- A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM  
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 15-25 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE  
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING, BUT SHOULD BEGIN  
TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN  
RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW, A WEAKENING/PRECEDING  
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO  
OH BY 12Z, WITH CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE/RADAR DATA SUGGESTING  
THAT THE RELATED LAYER OF ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS AND VIRGA WILL MISS  
OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH. THUS, THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR  
SKIES AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY-CALM WIND MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF PATCHY FOG IN SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES  
APPROACH FORECASTED LOWS IN THE U50S-L60S.  
 
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO  
CONTRACT BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE  
COAST OF NC/SC AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL  
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS  
VALLEY (IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE AMPLIFYING 500-MB TROUGH). AS THE  
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROGRESSIVELY STRENGTHENS INTO THE  
25-35 KNOT RANGE, INITIALLY ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY FOSTER  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA), BUT AT THIS POINT  
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE QUITE LOW (~10%). EVEN WITH A LAYER OF  
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS (WHICH COULD BE BROKEN IN COVERAGE FOR MUCH  
OF THE DAY), STRENGTHENING WAA IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT  
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM THE U70S-L80S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN TO  
THE M80S IN THE VALLEY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO SATURDAY  
NIGHT, FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE  
VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL  
GENERALLY FAVOR A MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM TIMEFRAME FROM WEST TO EAST --  
GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES  
JUST A TOUCH FASTER OR SLOWER. STILL, THE OVERNIGHT TIMING OF THIS  
FEATURE WILL MEAN THE THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS A  
FAIRLY APPRECIABLE CAPPING INVERSION REDEVELOPS AFTER SUNSET. THE  
SHEAR PROFILE DOES FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, LIKELY IN THE FORM  
OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD  
BE ELEVATED. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE  
STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A VERY LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO.  
GIVEN SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE  
OVERNIGHT, SPC HAS PLACED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A  
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5).  
 
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
REGION, EXITING BY EARLY TO MID SUNDAY MORNING. WE'LL NOTICE AN  
AIR MASS CHANGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS NORTHERLY FLOW BRING IN THIS  
COOL/DRY AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S  
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING -- WITH SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO  
REACH THE MID 70S BY THE AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY,  
SENDING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR AS A DRY COLD FRONT  
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A FAIRLY STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOL, DRY AIR  
MASS WILL SETTLE IN. AS A RESULT, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID  
70S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WE  
MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS  
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST  
REASONING, WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN VFR STRATOCU EXPECTED LATER  
THIS MORNING AS WINDS VEER TO SSW AND INCREASE TO 10G18 KTS.  
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AS THE  
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROGRESSIVELY INCREASES TO 15-25 KTS,  
IT APPEARS AS IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS  
NORTHEAST AL AND WE WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.  
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOWER STRATUS LAYER IS PREDICTED TO OCCUR BY  
2Z/MSL AND 4Z/HSV AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE  
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET  
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WITH SSW WINDS AT THE 850-MB  
LAYER PREDICTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 45-55 KNOTS DURING THE  
EVENING, LLWS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN BOTH TAFS. A BAND OF MOD-HVY  
RAIN (AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED TSRA) WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT MSL BY  
5-6Z AND HSV BY 7-8Z, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED EVEN IN THE  
POTENTIAL ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING/THUNDER. OVERCAST CIGS ARND 1500 FT  
(OR LOWER) WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF PRECIPITATION.  
 
 
   
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AL...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...70/DD  
SHORT TERM...AMP  
LONG TERM...AMP  
AVIATION...70/DD  
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