639
FXUS64 KHUN 181750
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1250 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- WIND GUSTS (OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS) OF 20-30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
ALREADY STARTING TO WARM UP NICELY THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALREADY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OUT
THERE RIGHT NOW, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER IS STARTING TO SLIDE IN FROM
THE SOUTH AS MOISTURE AND WAA FILTERS IN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS, WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY. S/SW
WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS
WARM UP INTO THE 80S, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN NE AL/S MID TN
TO THE UPPER 80S IN NW AL.
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SO TAKE TIME TODAY TO ENSURE YOU HAVE MORE THAN
ONE WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND WEATHER INFORMATION. BE SURE TO
CHECK THE WEATHER BEFORE HEADING TO BED AS WELL.
A SHARP TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
BECOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT HEADS INTO THE OH AND MS
VALLEY TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE TN
VALLEY AND MID SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TIMEFRAME FOR
THE STORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS STEADY, ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TO 6 AM, BUT WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO SEE IF
ANY TIMING NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED. TRENDS CONTINUE SHOW THAT
THERMODYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED, HOWEVER WITH THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND ENERGY IN PLACE, SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUS, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT. THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AS WELL
WITH PWATS REACHING THE 75TH TO 99TH PERCENTILE REACHING 1.4-1.6",
THUS ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, WITH
STORMS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY, THERE IS NO WIDESPREAD CONCERN FOR
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. INSTABILITY VALUES ALSO REMAIN REALLY
LOW IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BUT WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
25-35 KTS, CANNOT RULE OUT THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO IF THE
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. WITH THIS, SPC HAS A
SLIVER OF A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) IN NW AL, AND ALMOST THE REST OF US
IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/5).
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE
FORECAST TO BE DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
TUESDAY, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, A SECONDARY ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN LOW (LESS
THAN 15%) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PUSH IN BEHIND
IT. HIGHS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID
60S-70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-40S THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (AROUND 5
DEGREES) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY,
SENDING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A FAIRLY STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOL, DRY AIR
MASS WILL SETTLE IN. AS A RESULT, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WE
MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL UNTIL A LINE OF
STORMS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE STORMS, LLWS CONDITIONS
WILL START ABOUT 04Z AS WINDS AT 850MB/~4KFT WILL JUMP UP TO
40-50KTS. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT MSL BY 5-6Z AND HSV BY
7-8Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE STORMS DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CEILINGS BELOW 3KFT. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25KTS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND PERSIST UNTIL THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. BEHIND THE CONVECTION, CIGS WILL BE MVFR WITH LOWEST
HEIGHTS FOUND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, AND WINDS WILL BACK TO BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN BREEZY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...JMS
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