664
FXUS64 KHUN 181849
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
149 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- WIND GUSTS (OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS) OF 20-30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A FEW SHOWERS THAT ARE TYING TO FORM IN
NE AL AND CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP DUE TO THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 5-15KTS AND
GUST UP TO 25 KTS. THE WAA HAS HELPED TEMPS REACH SO FAR 78 UNDER
THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER IN NE AL TO 86 OUT IN THE SHOALS.
DURING THIS PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY, TAKE THE TIME TO ENSURE YOU
HAVE MORE THAN ONE WAY TO RECEIVE WEATHER INFORMATION AND WARNINGS
OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STILL ON TRACK AND NO
MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE. STILL EXPECTING THE LOW CHANCE FOR A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TO AFFECT THE TN VALLEY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO. STORMS WILL
ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THE LINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE
FORECAST TO BE DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
TUESDAY, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, A SECONDARY ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN LOW (LESS
THAN 15%) AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PUSH IN BEHIND
IT. HIGHS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID
60S-70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-40S THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (AROUND 5
DEGREES) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY,
SENDING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A FAIRLY STOUT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK AS COOL, DRY AIR
MASS WILL SETTLE IN. AS A RESULT, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WE
MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST IN A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL UNTIL A LINE OF
STORMS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE STORMS, LLWS CONDITIONS
WILL START ABOUT 04Z AS WINDS AT 850MB/~4KFT WILL JUMP UP TO
40-50KTS. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT MSL BY 5-6Z AND HSV BY
7-8Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE STORMS DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CEILINGS BELOW 3KFT. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25KTS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND PERSIST UNTIL THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. BEHIND THE CONVECTION, CIGS WILL BE MVFR WITH LOWEST
HEIGHTS FOUND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, AND WINDS WILL BACK TO BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN BREEZY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...JMS
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