204
FXUS64 KHUN 010356
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- LOW CHANCE OF FROST SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN PARTS OF NE ALABAMA. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE, MISSISSIPPI, AND
ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. CALM WINDS ARE IN PLACE AS A RESULT OVER
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES OR NW
ALABAMA INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER MOST
GUIDANCE DOES BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SE TOWARDS CENTRAL
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. EXPECT THIS ADVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE 36 TO 38 DEGREE RANGE IN PORTIONS OF NE ALABAMA. FURTHER
WEST, EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP A BIT SLOWER, SO LOWS IN THE 37 TO
41 DEGREE RANGE LOOK MORE REASONABLE.
BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSION VALUES ALREADY AT ZERO
DEGREES IN TYPICAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THOUGH AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE MOVES INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. THAT
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE. SOME PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF NE ALABAMA AS WELL, BUT DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.
IT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT IN THE 36 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE MOSTLY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA DURING THE DAY. MAINLY
JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL FORM AHEAD OF IT OVER THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN AS THE FRONT AND ITS UPPER LOW SWING CLOSER TO THE AREA
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND NE ARKANSAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON,
LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS. MOST OF THE STRONGER FORCING REMAINS JUST
TO OUR NORTHWEST THOUGH IN MOST GUIDANCE. HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY, STRONG
LIFT PUSHES INTO NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE
AREA. THE TRAJECTORY OF FORCING AND UPPER LOW ITSELF HAVE ALOT TO
DO WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IF WE SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL, IT WOULD
LIKELY BE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVES SSE AND ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA.
MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY EVENING. QUITE A BIT COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER SHOT AT MORE WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MOST GUIDANCE WARMS HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY
NIGHT.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND OCCURS THROUGH THE MIDDLE/END OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S BY THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, SOME SHOWERS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE BETTER FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AS LOWS
REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT THE HSV/MSL
TERMINALS, WITH A LGT WEST WIND. OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING,
AN OVERCAST LAYER OF CS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION,
PERHAPS HAVING AN IMPACT ON BOTH THE COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF BR/FG
WITHIN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT PROVIDED BY A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. NEVERTHELESS, LIMITED VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BTWN 8-13Z (MAINLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGE BODIES OF
WATER). LIGHT SSW FLOW WILL RETURN AFTER SUNRISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A COLD FRONT DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY. STRENGTHENING LIFT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LVL TROUGH (TO OUR NORTHWEST) WILL RESULT IN
GRADUAL SATURATION ALOFT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, WITH THE BASE
OF THE OVERCAST CLOUD LAYER FALLING TO ARND 10 KFT BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...70
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