220
FXUS64 KHUN 011105
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
605 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- LOW CHANCE OF FROST SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN PARTS OF NE ALABAMA. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN NE AL. WHILE FROST
MAY DEVELOP IN PLACES IN NE AL, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 0-2 DEGREES, SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AREA RIVERS AND LAKES AND WITHIN SHELTERED
VALLEYS. IF OUT DRIVING THIS MORNING, GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA TIME IN
CASE YOU ENCOUNTER ANY REDUCE VISIBILITIES FROM FOG. ANY FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN RISES.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW TODAY. WHILE THE
RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING, (MORE ON THAT IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION), CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM WEST TO EAST. A BRIEF WINDOW OF WAA IN
RESPONSE TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP RAISE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S, DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY, STRONG
LIFT PUSHES INTO NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE
AREA. THE TRAJECTORY OF FORCING AND UPPER LOW ITSELF HAVE A LOT
TO DO WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IF WE SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL, IT WOULD
LIKELY BE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVES SSE AND ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA.
MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY EVENING. QUITE A BIT COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY
PROVIDE A BETTER SHOT AT MORE WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MOST GUIDANCE WARMS HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY
NIGHT.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND OCCURS THROUGH THE MIDDLE/END OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S BY THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, SOME SHOWERS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE BETTER FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AS LOWS
REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TN RIVER AND AT TIMES THIS WAS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KMSL. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO
ACCOUNT FOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...GH
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