393
FXUS64 KHUN 012358
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 945 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN ENTER THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES, WAA FROM SSW FLOW HAS ALLOWED AFTERNOON
TEMPS TO RISE TO THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S. THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS
CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE NW WHERE AN APPROACHING FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN TN. THE SURFACE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW ALOFT WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH,
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN. WHILE WE COULD HAVE SOME STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE CUT OFF LOW WILL
PROVIDE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR HOWEVER HIRES MODELS REMAIN
PESSIMISTIC REGARDING THE PRESENCE OF ANY INSTABILITY. THUS
STRATIFORM RAIN IS MOST LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE
TOMORROW WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
RAINY AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH AN EXTRA HOUR OF SLEEP
WILL MAKE SUNDAY A PERFECT MORNING TO SLEEP IN. CONDITIONS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR AS BOTH LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS LINGER BEHIND THE
FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CUT OFF LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY AND AID IN CLEARING
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY EVENING. PAIRED WITH RIDGING ALOFT, WE WILL
ENTER A NNW FLOW PATTERN BY SUNDAY EVENING USHERING IN COOLER
CONTINENTAL AIR. AS SUCH, LOW IN THE 30S WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FROST POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. WE WILL
REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPS WARMING FROM THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY TO THE MID TO HIGH 60S
ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND WARMING FROM
THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY NIGHT TO THE MID 40S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND OCCURS THROUGH THE MIDDLE/END OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S BY THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, SOME SHOWERS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE BETTER FORCING AND
DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AS LOWS
REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
AL THIS EVENING AND EARLY SUN MORNING, WITH A FEW SHRA POSSIBLE
INVOF THE SFC WIND SHIFT AXIS (FROM SSW TO NNE). HOWEVER, WITH
DEEP-LAYER LIFT CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER-
LVL LOW (DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY) THE SETUP
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT POSTFRONTAL/STRATIFORM RAIN. AT
THIS POINT, OUR BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE TIMEFRAME OF MOST PERSISTENT
RAINFALL AND MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS IS 6-12Z/MSL AND 10-16Z/HSV.
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THIS
WINDOW, CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST
THAT MOST RADAR ECHOES THIS EVENING WILL EVAPORATE INTO VIRGA
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. FURTHERMORE, ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
LGT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY (SUN AFTN),
BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE PRECLUDES ANOTHER PROB30 GROUP
AT THIS POINT. CIGS WILL FALL TO 4-8 KFT BY MID- EVENING, BEFORE
SETTLING ARND 1500 FT AS PRECIP BEGINS, WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING
POSSIBLE AT MSL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM...RAD
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...70/DD
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