738
FXUS64 KHUN 020445
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1145 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR TOWARDS NOON PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- LOW CHANCES OF RAIN MAY LINGER IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO
THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING. COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- SOME PATCHY FROST COULD OCCUR MONDAY MORNING IN NW ALABAMA, BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
MOSTLY VERY LIGHT RAIN HAS FALLEN SO FAR THIS EVENING UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES. SOME MODERATE RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA. THIS BAND OF MORE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE AREA. THE BEST LIFT AROUND 700 MB WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEST OF I-65 AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
DROP FROM THE CURRENT LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
40S BY DAYBREAK.
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST DRAGGING THE STRONG UPPER LOW THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THOUGH 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL BE VERY
LIGHT, MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR (0-6 KM/0-8 KM) WILL BE STRONG AS
THAT UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.0
AND 7.5 ARE SHOWN IN MULTIPLE MODELS. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
STRONGER STORMS IS WHETHER SURFACE BASE CAPE CAN DEVELOP ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATER IN THE MORNING TOWARDS 1 PM. A
FEW MODELS DO DEVELOP BETWEEN 200 AND 400 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A VERY MARGINAL AND SHORT WINDOW FOR A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO BE
MAINLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA.
THE CLOUD COVER, HEAVIER RAINFALL AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY RAW TODAY.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE IN
PORTIONS OF NE ALABAMA, MOST AREAS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.
A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA
INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 35
TO 39 DEGREE RANGE IN NW ALABAMA BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. WHETHER
THIS WILL OCCUR FURTHER EAST IS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION. FOR NOW
HAVE LOWS IN THE 38 TO 41 DEGREE RANGE MAINLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FROST AT LEAST IN NW ALABAMA. WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS TIMEFRAME CLOSELY FOR ANY POSSIBLE FROST ADVISORY
PRODUCTS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING THE DAY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ONE MORE FROSTY NIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL REBOUND ON
TUESDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
THE ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW BY TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 40S OR LOWER 50S.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SOME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, AS A
TROUGHS AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF IT.
HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THEN.
HIGHS BY FRIDAY COULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY
THEN. FOR NOW KEPT ON THE LOW END OF THAT STICKING WITH GUIDANCE
GIVEN VARIABILITY IN THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY MODELS.
AS STRONGER LIFT AND MORE MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE, BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS STILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY AREA. SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG THOUGH, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN CASE FORCING AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH
WITH TIME.
THIS QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND PRIMARILY OFF THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER AND COLDER AIR IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
AL THIS EVENING AND EARLY SUN MORNING, WITH A FEW SHRA POSSIBLE
INVOF THE SFC WIND SHIFT AXIS (FROM SSW TO NNE). HOWEVER, WITH
DEEP-LAYER LIFT CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER-
LVL LOW (DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY) THE SETUP
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT POSTFRONTAL/STRATIFORM RAIN. AT
THIS POINT, OUR BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE TIMEFRAME OF MOST PERSISTENT
RAINFALL AND MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS IS 6-12Z/MSL AND 10-16Z/HSV.
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THIS
WINDOW, CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST
THAT MOST RADAR ECHOES THIS EVENING WILL EVAPORATE INTO VIRGA
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. FURTHERMORE, ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
LGT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY (SUN AFTN),
BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE PRECLUDES ANOTHER PROB30 GROUP
AT THIS POINT. CIGS WILL FALL TO 4-8 KFT BY MID- EVENING, BEFORE
SETTLING ARND 1500 FT AS PRECIP BEGINS, WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING
POSSIBLE AT MSL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...70
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