753
FXUS64 KHUN 021655
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1055 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 919 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
- LOW CHANCE OF FROST TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NW AL
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE TN VALLEY
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (30% OR LESS) RETURN NEXT WEEKEND
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 919 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF
SHOWERS CONTINUE- PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. WHILE WE HAVE
NOT SEEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NE AL
AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLIMB TO AROUND ~8 C/KM. NO STRONG STORMS
OR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF OUR AREA BY ~22Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN FROM
THE WEST. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF NW AL AND SOME PORTIONS OF FAR NE AL
WHERE THE TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE MID 30S DUE TO CLEARER
SKIES. COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
FROST FORMATION IN NW AL AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE AL DURING
THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW IN
WIDESPREAD FROST AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE, HOLDING OFF ON ANY FROST
ADVISORIES FOR NOW AND WILL RE-EVALUATE MODEL CONSISTENCY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 919 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND A GENERAL
WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER
60S MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO THE LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO 40S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
THE ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW BY TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 40S OR LOWER 50S.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SOME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, AS A
TROUGHS AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF IT.
HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THEN.
HIGHS BY FRIDAY COULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY
THEN. FOR NOW KEPT ON THE LOW END OF THAT STICKING WITH GUIDANCE
GIVEN VARIABILITY IN THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY MODELS.
AS STRONGER LIFT AND MORE MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE, BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS STILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY AREA. SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG THOUGH, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN CASE FORCING AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH
WITH TIME.
THIS QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND PRIMARILY OFF THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER AND COLDER AIR IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A LOW CHANCE OF FOG EXISTS FOR KMSL EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL TO
WARRANT THE ADDITION TO THE OFFICIAL TAF PACKAGE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ001>003.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...HC
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