019
FXUS64 KHUN 021947
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
147 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 147 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
- FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NW AL MONDAY MORNING
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE TN VALLEY
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (30% OR LESS) RETURN NEXT WEEKEND
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY, SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. WHILE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ANY LIGHTNING FORMATION
(PRIMARILY IN NE AL), THERE HAS BEEN VERY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN A
FEW SHOWERS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT, FROST AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE A CONCERN PRIMARILY IN NW AL
WHERE SKIES CLEAR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 30S. ELSEWHERE, LINGERING CLOUD
COVER SHOULD MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FROST AND FOG FORMATION. A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAUDERDALE, COLBERT, AND FRANKLIN
(AL) COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING. BE SURE TO COVER ANY SENSITIVE
VEGETATION AND WEAR MULTIPLE LAYERS IF HEADING OUTDOORS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 919 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND A GENERAL
WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER
60S MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO THE LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO 40S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
THE ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW BY TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH PLENTY OF SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 40S OR LOWER 50S.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SOME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, AS A
TROUGHS AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF IT.
HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THEN.
HIGHS BY FRIDAY COULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY
THEN. FOR NOW KEPT ON THE LOW END OF THAT STICKING WITH GUIDANCE
GIVEN VARIABILITY IN THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY MODELS.
AS STRONGER LIFT AND MORE MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE, BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS STILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY AREA. SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG THOUGH, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM IN CASE FORCING AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH
WITH TIME.
THIS QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND PRIMARILY OFF THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER AND COLDER AIR IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A LOW CHANCE OF FOG EXISTS FOR KMSL EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL TO
WARRANT THE ADDITION TO THE OFFICIAL TAF PACKAGE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ001>003.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...HC
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