064
FXUS64 KHUN 030301
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
901 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 901 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
- A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NW AL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
(SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE).
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT TIMING IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM (EARLY NEXT WEEK).
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 901 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A LOW (INITIALLY POSITIONED ACROSS
NORTHEAST AL/NORTHWEST GA) WILL WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD OFF
THE COAST OF NC/SC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, INTENSE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUBSIDE AND BACK TO THE NW AS A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND INTO SOUTH TX. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL MAINTAIN
DRY PROFILES AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT/SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW.
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AR/NORTHWESTERN MS, PROVIDING LIGHT NNE TO
CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT NNW WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON MONDAY. THUS, CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT, WITH LOWS PREDICTED TO RANGE FROM THE M30S-L40S.
WITH TRENDS IN REGIONAL ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING THAT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO CONTRACT, FOG MAY QUICKLY BECOME
A CONCERN BETWEEN 4-6Z AND COULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY DENSE TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IF THIS
ENDS UP BEING THE CASE, THE RISK FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FROST SHOULD
BE REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AL, BUT UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
SEE MORE EVIDENCE OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WE WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT HAZARD HEADLINES. AFTER A COOL START
TO THE MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE U50S-L60S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 901 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE TX GULF COAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, UNAMPLIFIED WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE, A
RIDGE (INITIALLY CENTERED TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST) WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER OPTIMAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING TOMORROW EXPECTED TO LOWER DEWPOINTS TO SOME EXTENT,
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE M-U 30S. THUS, PATCHY
FROST CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS, WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES.
DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT, THE LOW-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL OCCUR
WITH A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON DEWPOINTS, AND LOWS SHOULD STILL DROP
INTO THE L-M 40S TUESDAY NIGHT (EVEN AFTER A WARMER DAY ON
TUESDAY FEATURING HIGHS IN THE M60S-L70S). SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WILL STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEPENING LOW
TO OUR NORTH ADVANCES FURTHER EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ITS
WEAKENING/TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AND OZARKS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THE DRY COLD
FRONT WILL REACH OUR REGION, WE WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE M40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 901 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TWO DISTINCT
MID/UPPER-LEVEL WAVES WILL TRAVEL CYCLONICALLY AROUND A DEEP/COLD
CORE VORTEX DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF HUDSON
BAY OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF MODEL SUITES
REGARDING THE TRACK AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE, AND
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS/GEM SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED (COMPARED TO THE ECMWF), WHICH
WOULD BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY SURGE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PROVIDING A
SUFFICIENTLY WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SQUALL LINE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 50-60
KNOTS) AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (WSW LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KNOTS), ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO.
DUE TO FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE, GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS KY/TN ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, IT DOES SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A QLCS (WITHIN
A SIMILAR KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT) AHEAD OF A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT PREDICTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS
OF SOLUTION, IT APPEARS AS IF THE SECOND WAVE WILL UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING A
COLD/ARCTIC AIRMASS TO QUICKLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES
ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
BOTH TERMINALS ARE EXPERIENCING CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT
THIS TIME. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED AT KMSL, BUT STILL ARE
AROUND 4 KNOTS AT KHSV. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED MUCH
OF TONIGHT, THOUGH SOME BRIEF CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET MAY BRIEFLY
AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. EXPECT FOG REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW, KEPT VFR VSBYS THROUGH 08Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
HOWEVER, THIS MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED FOR A QUICKER LOWERING OF
VSBYS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE KMSL IS ALREADY
DECOUPLED BROUGHT VSBYS DOWN TO 1 SM BY 08Z AND INCLUDED A TEMPO
FOR 1/2SM VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. NOT GOING QUITE AS LOW WITH
VSBYS AT KHSV, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE. FOR NOW, LOWERED VSBYS TO 2SM
AT 08Z AT KHSV WITH A TEMPO FROM 08Z TO 12Z DROPPING TO AROUND
1SM. BY 15Z, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ001>003.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...KTW
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