848
FXUS64 KHUN 051050
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
450 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1005 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY, BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A TRANQUIL DAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE LIMITED FOG
FORMATION. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE UP INTO THE LOWER 70S. ENJOY THE
CALM FALL WEATHER AS THINGS ARE ABOUT TO CHANGE. MORE ON THAT IN
THE NEXT FEW SECTIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
ZONAL FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
FOSTERING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TN VALLEY. HIGHS DURING
THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S-50S. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, OUR ATTENTION
TURNS TOWARDS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO THE TN VALLEY ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD, SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND ALLOW INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. DEW POINTS FRIDAY EVENING ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
60 DEGREES (MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER). TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED
TOWARD A POTENTIAL LOW THREAT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT, WITH LOW INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR PRESENT. WE WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK TO GAUGE HOW MUCH OF A THREAT
STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS ARE AS WELL AS GAIN A SENSE OF TIMING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
A NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONUS THE GREATER PART OF THE WEEK, WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS
WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD INTO A NEW WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER NORTH/CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY AS WE GO INTO THE LATE WEEK THEN BE SITUATED
SOMEWHERE OVER SE CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH
FORECAST MODEL DIVERGENCE BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE THEN). THIS
SETUP WILL RESULT IN DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN LOWER-48,
WITH PRONOUNCED RIDGING OVER NW MEXICO AND THE DESERT SW. BY THE
TIME WE GET INTO SATURDAY EVENING, THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN
EARLIER PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLIER IN THE DAY. A MUCH
STRONGER FRONT MOVING SSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY ON SUNDAY, THEN SWEEP
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA AND BE LOCATED FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TO
THE TIDEWATER/PIEDMONT OF THE SE TO THE NW GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.
CHILLY AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY RISE TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES, IN COMPARISON TO THE LOWER 70S THE DAY BEFORE. AT
TIMES BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
TAKE A PLUNGE SUN NIGHT, COOLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S,
WITH A FEW MID 30S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER. THE START OF AN
ABBREVIATED WORK WEEK FOR MOST WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING INTO THE MID 40S AND NW WINDS OF 5-15 MPH. AREAS THAT HAVE
NOT BEEN IMPACTED BY FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES YET - IT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT, AS LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE LOWER 20S TO
AROUND 30 WITH A STEADY NW FLOW OF AROUND 5 MPH. FREEZE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUN/MON NIGHTS.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE CONUS, CONTINUING
COLD AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE AIR WILL MODIFY AS WE
GO INTO THE NEW WEEK. IT SHOULDN'T BE AS COLD ON VETERANS DAY,
TUESDAY NOV 11TH, AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S UNDER GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES. NOT AS CHILLY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. EVEN
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
OUT OF THE SW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...GH
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