528
FXUS64 KHUN 052336
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
536 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING FRIDAY FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER THE TN VALLEY.
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RECORD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
CALM AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SIT
OVERHEAD. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR AS A QUICK LOOK AT
THE GOES 16 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS NO CLOUDS OVER THE TN VALLEY.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LATER TONIGHT AS A DRY
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
REGION. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MULTIPLE
WATERWAYS AND VALLEYS DURING THE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
ZONAL FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
FOSTERING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TN VALLEY. HIGHS DURING THIS
TIME ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 40S-50S. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, OUR ATTENTION TURNS
TOWARDS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR AREA.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE END OF THE WEEK, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE TN VALLEY ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AND ALLOW INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEW POINTS
FRIDAY EVENING ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS
WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 DEGREES (MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE TN RIVER). MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE TRENDED TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THREAT FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT FOR LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING GIVEN THE HIGH WIND SHEAR, BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY,
AND LOW INSTABILITY. IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC), A "SLIGHT" RISK (2 OUT OF 5) IS BEING ADVERTISED FOR
OUR CWA. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
FRIDAY. THE TIMING AND THREATS WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONUS THE GREATER PART OF THE WEEK, WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD INTO A NEW WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER NORTH/CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY AS WE GO INTO THE LATE WEEK THEN BE
SITUATED SOMEWHERE OVER SE CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK
(WITH FORECAST MODEL DIVERGENCE BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLE THEN). THIS
SETUP WILL RESULT IN DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN LOWER-48, WITH
PRONOUNCED RIDGING OVER NW MEXICO AND THE DESERT SW. BY THE TIME WE
GET INTO SATURDAY EVENING, THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLIER IN THE DAY. A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT MOVING SSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY ON SUNDAY, THEN SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
AREA AND BE LOCATED FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TO THE
TIDEWATER/PIEDMONT OF THE SE TO THE NW GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.
CHILLY AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY RISE TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES, IN COMPARISON TO THE LOWER 70S THE DAY BEFORE. AT
TIMES BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
TAKE A PLUNGE SUN NIGHT, COOLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S,
WITH A FEW MID 30S NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER. THE START OF AN
ABBREVIATED WORK WEEK FOR MOST WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING INTO THE MID 40S, NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH, AND WIND CHILLS
IN THE UPPER TEENS. AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN IMPACTED BY FROST OR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES YET - IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT, AS
LOWS TUMBLE INTO THE LOWER 20S TO AROUND 30 WITH A STEADY SW WIND
AROUND 10 MPH. MULTIPLE AREAS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY HAVE A HIGH
CHANCE OF APPROACHING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SUN/MON NIGHTS. FREEZE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUN/MON NIGHTS.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE CONUS, CONTINUING
COLD AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE AIR WILL MODIFY AS WE GO
INTO THE NEW WEEK. IT SHOULDN'T BE AS COLD ON VETERANS DAY, TUESDAY
NOV 11TH, AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. NOT AS CHILLY TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. EVEN WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. EXCEPT FOR SW WINDS BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE NORTH, NO
WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE,
ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG BEFORE SUNRISE THU. ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR FOG
AT BOTH TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BEFORE DAYBREAK. AFTERWARDS,
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE AROUND 5KT IN THE LATE MORNING AND MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JAN
SHORT TERM....JAN
LONG TERM....JAN
AVIATION...RSB
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