843
FXUS64 KHUN 060506
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1106 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING FRIDAY FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER THE TN VALLEY, ESPECIALLY IN NW ALABAMA.
- WE ARE MONITORING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL OF
SATURDAY, BUT THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RECORD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERING ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EAST THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF NEW YORK. NOT
MUCH CLOUD COVER NEAR AND WEST OF CROSSVILLE, TN. MOST GUIDANCE
KEEPS WINDS CALM OR FAIRLY LIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ADVECT FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE DOWN
THE RIVER VALLEYS OF NE ALABAMA, THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS OF NE ALABAMA. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND MID TO UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR. IN THOSE LOCATIONS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S LOOK REASONABLE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. WELL SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASES AS THE SURFACE HIGH (THAT GAVE US SUCH NICE WEATHER
THIS WEEK) PUSHES EAST FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP
A DECENT MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT THAT MODELS SHOW
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE COLD FRONT INTO MISSISSIPPI/NW
ALABAMA. GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO, THIS FAIRLY QUICK MOISTURE ADVECTION
SEEMS REASONABLE.
THOUGH FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS NOT THE
STRONGEST, SHEAR IS STRONG (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR - 40 TO 60 KNOTS).
0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY ALSO INCREASES TO BETWEEN 200 AND 300
M2/S2. SO PLENTY OF SHEAR AND ENOUGH HELICITY IN PLACE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL BE THE QUESTIONABLE COMPONENT OF THIS
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE SURFACE BASED
THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAYBE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS (POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 300 TO 800 J/KG NEAR AND WEST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR). HOWEVER, THIS INSTABILITY MAY DECREASE QUICKLY BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM) TO LESS THAN 300
J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR HELICITY IN PLACE, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL OR TWO COULD FORM IN EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI AND MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY
LOW (LIKELY 20 TO 40 PERCENT). GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
THOUGH ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, A TORNADO, OR HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.
STRONGER 700 MB FORCING DOES PUSH INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 4
AND 7 PM, THOUGH THE MORE CONCENTRATED/DEEPER AREA OF LIFT WILL
BE PRIMARILY IN TENNESSEE NORTHEAST INTO KENTUCKY. MODELS MOVE
THIS FORCING PRIMARILY EAST, BUT DO MOVE SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG
FORCING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING. AGAIN AFTER 10 PM, NOT SURE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE, BUT COULD BE BARELY SURFACE
BASED. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, BUT AGAIN NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
MODELS PUSH THE MAIN COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING A SHORT BREAK TO THE
RAINY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, MODELS MOVE THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY DROPS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AREA TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AREA. SHEAR AND FORCING DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND A
STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG AND MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. LUCKILY HELICITY LOOKS
FAIRLY WEAK AHEAD OF THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. AGAIN FORCING MAY BE
AN ISSUE AGAIN, BUT OTHER INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS IF FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW HUDSON BAY SHOULD CONTINUE ITS
JOURNEY SOUTHWARD, REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS VORTEX AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD WILL BE FORTIFIED BY ANOTHER
EASTWARD MOVING UPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC SOUTH OF ALASKA
AND WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE RATHER
DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. THE
TROUGH ON MONDAY SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NE GULF AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS UPPER SYSTEM IN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
SWING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO THE NE THEN NORTH,
BEING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT
IN THE TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST AS
WE GO INTO THE MID WEEK, RETURNING A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THIS AREA.
UNDER THIS TROUGH, A SURFACE LOW FORMING UNDER THE EASTWARD MOVING
PACIFIC UPPER LOW, WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WILL DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THIS WEEKEND, MOVING
NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY.
FOR THIS AREA, AS THE SECOND AFORMENTIONED LOW DEEPENS, IT WILL BRING
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY. THESE
FRONTS, ESPECIALLY THE SECOND ONE WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON TO THE AREA JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF A NEW WORK WEEK. A
FEW TRAILING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA IN THE PREDAWN OF SUNDAY SHOULD
END AFTER SUNRISE AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN. SUN WILL
BE A SHOCKING TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S
(COMPARED TO LOW/MID 70S THE DAY BEFORE!). IN ADDITION TO THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE, AN AT TIMES BRISK NW WIND OF 10-20 MPH, WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE MORE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR N-NE, NEW GUIDANCE WAS
HINTING AT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, WHICH WILL MAKE THE COOL CHANGE
MORE NOTEWORTHY. SUNDAY NIGHT, AREAWIDE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WITH LOWS TUMBLING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. ONLY A FEW
SPOTS NEAR A STILL MILD TENNESSEE RIVER MAY EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING. WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, MONDAY WILL BE A
CHILLY NOV DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S. EVEN COLDER MON
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S (NEAR 20 THE COLDEST SPOTS TO UPPER
20S/NEAR 30S WARMEST AREAS).
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES THEN WILL OCCUR, THANKS TO THE CANADIAN
SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER AWAY AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNING.
UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ON VETERANS DAY - TUESDAY SHOULD
RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 50S, AND LOWS THAT NIGHT IN THE 30S. EVEN
MILDER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER
60S, AND LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, DUE TO DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALREADY, HAVE
LOWERED VSBYS TO MVFR BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. THEN EXPECT SOUTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...KTW
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