276
FXUS64 KHUN 070020
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
620 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1058 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE TN VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUR OF 5) HAS
BEEN DENOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGH CHANCES OF RECORD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE TRANQUIL WEATHER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS. THE
CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. A GOOD EVENING/NIGHT TO VIEW THE NEARLY FULL BEAVER
MOON ONCE AGAIN!
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. FIRST, A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES (60-80%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF INTO THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PWATS UP TO AROUND 1". WHAT'S MUCH LESS
CERTAIN IS HOW MUCH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERATED
AS MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED WITH SBCAPE AND MLCAPE GENERALLY AT 500 J/KG OR
LESS. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY POOR LAPSE RATES (NEARLY MOIST-
ADIABATIC) AND IT'S ON THE TABLE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
ELEVATED.
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60 KTS WOULD FAVOR SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION (ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY VALUES OUTPERFORM),
WITH THE STORM MODE LIKELY BEING SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS. OF NOTE, ANY RIGHT MOVERS WOULD NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS THEY WOULD POTENTIAL INGEST AROUND 100-150 M2/S2 OF
0-1 KM SRH FOR A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT -- BUT DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY DURING 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME.
STORMS WILL TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF LULL, THE FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT AND THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED, WITH A LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THAT CAN TAP INTO ANY SBCAPE THAT DEVELOPS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW HUDSON BAY SHOULD CONTINUE ITS
JOURNEY SOUTHWARD, REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS VORTEX AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD WILL BE FORTIFIED BY ANOTHER
EASTWARD MOVING UPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC SOUTH OF ALASKA
AND WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE RATHER
DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. THE
TROUGH ON MONDAY SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NE GULF AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS UPPER SYSTEM IN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
SWING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO THE NE THEN NORTH,
BEING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT
IN THE TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST AS
WE GO INTO THE MID WEEK, RETURNING A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THIS AREA.
UNDER THIS TROUGH, A SURFACE LOW FORMING UNDER THE EASTWARD MOVING
PACIFIC UPPER LOW, WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WILL DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THIS WEEKEND, MOVING
NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY.
FOR THIS AREA, AS THE SECOND AFORMENTIONED LOW DEEPENS, IT WILL BRING
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY. THESE
FRONTS, ESPECIALLY THE SECOND ONE WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON TO THE AREA JUST IN TIME FOR THE START OF A NEW WORK WEEK. A
FEW TRAILING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA IN THE PREDAWN OF SUNDAY SHOULD
END AFTER SUNRISE AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING IN. SUN WILL
BE A SHOCKING TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S
(COMPARED TO LOW/MID 70S THE DAY BEFORE!). IN ADDITION TO THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE, AN AT TIMES BRISK NW WIND OF 10-20 MPH, WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE MORE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR N-NE, NEW GUIDANCE WAS
HINTING AT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, WHICH WILL MAKE THE COOL CHANGE
MORE NOTEWORTHY. SUNDAY NIGHT, AREAWIDE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WITH LOWS TUMBLING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. ONLY A FEW
SPOTS NEAR A STILL MILD TENNESSEE RIVER MAY EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING. WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, MONDAY WILL BE A
CHILLY NOV DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S. EVEN COLDER MON
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S (NEAR 20 THE COLDEST SPOTS TO UPPER
20S/NEAR 30S WARMEST AREAS).
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES THEN WILL OCCUR, THANKS TO THE CANADIAN
SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER AWAY AND A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNING.
UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ON VETERANS DAY - TUESDAY SHOULD
RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 50S, AND LOWS THAT NIGHT IN THE 30S. EVEN
MILDER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER
60S, AND LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING, AND ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BR/FG MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
LOCAL VALLEYS BY 4-6Z, A LGT SE BREEZE SHOULD REDUCE CONCERN FOR
VSBY REDUCTIONS AT THE AIRPORTS. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, A SW LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS LATER THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER-MS
VALLEY. INITIALLY ELEVATED NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF GULF
MOISTURE IN THIS REGIME WILL RESULT IN A SCATTERED LAYER OF
STRATOCU BY 10Z (BENEATH A BKN LAYER OF CS), WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
BKN STRATUS IN THE 2.5-5 KFT LAYER EXPECTED BY 14Z. IN ADDITION TO
MVFR CIGS, DEVELOPMENT OF LGT-MOD SHRA IS PREDICTED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KY, WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EASTWARD FRI AFTN. THUS, WE HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR
SHRA AND MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM 18-24Z/MSL AND 21-24Z/HSV,
WITH SW WINDS IN THE 10G18 KT RANGE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD TOMORROW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM...AMP
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...70/DD
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