154
FXUS64 KHUN 070551
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1151 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE TN VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUR
OF 5) HAS BEEN DENOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGH CHANCES OF RECORD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A SLOWLY MOVING WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THE AIRMASS JUST
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL FAIRLY DRY OVERALL. DEWPOINTS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 50S MAINLY. AS
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND ASSOCIATED STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE AREA AND THE STRONG HIGH
OVER THE ATLANTIC MOVES LITTLE, MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASING OVER THE AREA. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH IN
HIGHER TERRAIN AREA POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF ARKANSAS INTO NW TENNESSEE.
HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
PUSHING INTO NW ALABAMA UNTIL RIGHT AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES, THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP MUCH IF
ANY FOG FROM FORMING THROUGH DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL HELP
LIMIT HEATING AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY A BIT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY, BUT STILL VERY NICE, REACHING
THE UPPER 60S (EAST) TO 74 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THIS
LIMITING FACTOR, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WITH
THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THOUGH
LOW LEVEL WINDS (925 MB/850 MB) AREN'T TOO IMPRESSIVE, 500 MB AND
300 MB WINDS ARE STRONG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DECENT HELICITY
(THOUGH A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS) IS STILL SHOWN AS WELL.
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASES TO
50 TO 60 KNOTS, SUPPORTING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HELICITY IS
ENOUGH FOR ROTATING CELLS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND A TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER THE BIGGEST KEY
WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE THE FORCING OR LACK THEREOF
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. MODELS SHOW THE WEAK WARM
FRONT (CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA) SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST AND
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CAPE NEAR AND EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR BUILDS TO BETWEEN 500 AND 900 J/KG WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR.
EVEN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH FORCING OR
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG AND NEAR IT (EXCEPT MAYBE IN SW ALABAMA).
THAT IS THE QUESTION THAT LINGERS THOUGH. CHANCES LOOK LOW THOUGH
(10 TO 40 PERCENT) OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN
ALABAMA OR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL LESS FORCING IS SEEN OVER THE AREA IN
CURRENT MODEL RUNS THEN. IF WE DO GET A MORE ROBUST STORM THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO COULD OCCUR IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. DAMAGING WINDS, A TORNADO,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LARGE HAIL COULD ALL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR (THOUGH LARGE HAIL WOULD BE HARDER
TO GET). IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
STRONGER FORCING MOVES INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING (AROUND 6 PM).
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WE WILL HAVE LEFT BY
THEN (BUT MAYBE 100 TO 400 J/KG). SHEAR AND HELICITY WILL STILL BE
HIGH THOUGH, SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH NW ALABAMA FOR A MARGINAL
THREAT BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM.
THOUGH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY LINGER, MOST MODELS SHOW NO
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY 10 PM. MOST OF THAT PRIOR TO
10 PM IS VERY WEAK (<300 J/KG) AND PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THAT BEING SAID, ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY LINGER
LONGEST IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO KENTUCKY
(AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FOR MANY DAYS NOW).
THE FRONT SEEMS TO SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE STRONGEST
FORCING/HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST.
MOST GUIDANCE REALLY WEAKENS THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN
WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
STILL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MOST LIKELY.
MODELS DO QUICKLY MOVE THIS WEAK FRONT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR DOES INCREASE AGAIN, THOUGH NO REAL
HELICITY IS SHOWN IN GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOKS A BIT WARMER ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY,
MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER, BUT THEN GOES AWAY
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THE EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST FROM
INDIANA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRODUCES A NEW SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES ENE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. IT DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY. AGAIN, THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THE WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. AGAIN
COVERAGE LOOKS VERY LOW THOUGH AND MUCH OF THAT MAY BE MORE IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH WOULD MORE LIKELY KEEP SEVERE
CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW CHANCE
OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE SOME
HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF ANY CONVECTION BECOMES SEVERE.
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, MAINLY DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
LATEST EXTENDED RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE AXIS OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
INTENSITY, NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT A RATHER POTENT
VORT MAX (EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH) WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, PROVIDING AT LEAST MODEST SUPPORT FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, STRONG NW
FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BY A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING LOW
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND AN ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD YIELD A VAST COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CWFA, WHERE ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER STREAMLINES WILL
RESULT IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU).
REGARDLESS OF SNOW, IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY, COLD AND BLUSTERY
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE M-U
20S AND NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (WITH STRONGER GUSTS) YIELDING
MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE M-U TEENS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
U30S-L40S (OFFERED BY BLENDED GUIDANCE) MAY ALSO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO WARM DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS.
AS THE CENTER OF THE RAPIDLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HIGHLY
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY
RETURN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN NW FLOW ALOFT, DEWPOINTS IN THE
M-U TEENS SUGGEST THAT A HARD/KILLING FREEZE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS-LOWER 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS (AWAY
FROM LARGE WATER SOURCES). PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS
PARTICULAR OUTBREAK OF COLD AIR WILL BE INTENSE BUT BRIEF, AS THE
ONSET OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INITIATE A
NOTABLE WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
RISE INTO THE U40S-L50S. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE L-M 60S BY
THURSDAY AS LOWS RISE INTO THE U30S-L40S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS,
BEFORE PICKING UP BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z IN MOST AREAS TO AROUND 5
KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NW ALABAMA AROUND 12Z AT KMSL AND 14Z
AT KMSL. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY AT THE
TERMINALS. VFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. A PROB30 WAS KEPT FOR BOTH TERMINALS TO INCLUDE SHRA AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TSRA IN
THIS PROB30 GROUP AND SOME MORE PREDOMINANT RAIN AFTER 08/00Z AT
KMSL AND 08/03Z AT KHSV.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...KTW
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