625
FXUS64 KHUN 070929
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
329 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 328 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL,
AND A TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGH CHANCES OF DAILY RECORD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATUS DECK
APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY FROM THE WEST AS A FOG BANK OVERSPREADS
SOUTHERN MS AND AL. A SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ITS DRAPING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST, INCREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE, WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG
AT BAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
ALOFT, A POSITIVELY-TILTED MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR ASCENT, WHICH WILL REMAIN A
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO OUR SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. THAT SAID, A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING AFTER 6
PM. ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE ROBUST PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS TO THE
NORTH, THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. WE
WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SOURCES OF INSTABILITY:
HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO OUR SOUTH SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHWARD AND A 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LVL LAPSE RATE TO OUR NORTH MOVING
TO THE EAST. THE SPC SLIGHT RISK IS HAIL-DRIVEN DUE TO THE
SOMEWHAT STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES, AND I AGREE WITH THE SPATIAL
EXTENT PRESENTED IN THE 06Z OUTLOOK.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT IF WE BECOME SURFACE-BASED INTO THE
EVENING (LOW CHANCE, 20%), THE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50+ KTS IS
ORIENTED FAIRLY PERPENDICULAR TO THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS/INITIATING
BOUNDARY. WITH SUCH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT, THIS PRESENTS AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR A SUPERCELL. WHAT
HAS EVOLVED IN OUR FAVOR IN RECENT RUNS IS LESS HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE THAN INDICATED PREVIOUSLY. HOWEVER, HELICITY AND
ROTATION IS MORE A CASE OF SUFFICIENCY, AND IT IS FALL IN THE
SOUTHEAST. DIGGING INTO HODOGRAPH SHAPE RELATIVE TO STORM MOTION,
MORE FAVORABLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY IS ONLY INGESTED IN THE LOWEST
500 M FOR THE RM SUPERCELL DEVIANT MOTION. THIS PRESENTS TWO
LAYERS OF CONDITIONALITY: IF A SUPERCELL IS ABLE TO FORM AND IF WE
ARE SURFACE BASED, THEN THERE IS AN INDICATOR THAT A WEAK TORNADO
(EF0 OR 1) CAN FORM. SPC PAINTED A FAIRLY ROBUST 2% TORNADO RISK,
WHICH THE TN VALLEY SEES AN AVERAGE OF 3-4 OF THESE PER FALL. WIND
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS AS
WELL, EVEN WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE 7 PM TO MIDNIGHT
THIS EVENING. A TAKE-HOME MESSAGE IS MOST WILL SEE RAIN AS THE
CONVERGENCE AXIS MOVES THROUGH (POPS PEAK AT 60-70%), SOME WILL
HEAR THUNDER, AND VERY FEW WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS,
IF ANY AT ALL. IT'S ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO KEEP TRACK OF AS YOU GO
ABOUT YOUR FRIDAY EVENING, BUT NOTHING HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE OR
CANCEL PLANS AT THIS POINT.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
THE CONVERGENCE AXIS SEEMS TO SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE
STRONGEST FORCING/HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST.
MOST GUIDANCE REALLY WEAKENS THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN
WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MOST LIKELY.
MODELS DO QUICKLY MOVE THIS WARM SECTOR NORTHWARD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHEAR DOES INCREASE AGAIN, THOUGH NO REAL HELICITY IS
SHOWN IN GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOKS A BIT WARMER ON SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY, MAINLY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER, BUT THEN GOES AWAY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST FROM
INDIANA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRODUCES A NEW SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES ENE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. IT DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY. AGAIN, THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THE WARM FRONT MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. AGAIN
COVERAGE LOOKS VERY LOW THOUGH AND MUCH OF THAT MAY BE MORE IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH WOULD MORE LIKELY KEEP SEVERE
CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW CHANCE
OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE SOME
HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF ANY CONVECTION BECOMES SEVERE.
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, MAINLY DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
LATEST EXTENDED RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE AXIS OF
AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
INTENSITY, NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT A RATHER POTENT
VORT MAX (EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH) WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, PROVIDING AT LEAST MODEST SUPPORT FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, STRONG NW
FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BY A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING LOW
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND AN ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD YIELD A VAST COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CWFA, WHERE ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER STREAMLINES WILL
RESULT IN FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU).
REGARDLESS OF SNOW, IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY, COLD AND BLUSTERY
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE M-U
20S AND NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (WITH STRONGER GUSTS) YIELDING
MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE M-U TEENS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
U30S-L40S (OFFERED BY BLENDED GUIDANCE) MAY ALSO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO WARM DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS.
AS THE CENTER OF THE RAPIDLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HIGHLY
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY
RETURN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN NW FLOW ALOFT, DEWPOINTS IN THE
M-U TEENS SUGGEST THAT A HARD/KILLING FREEZE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS-LOWER 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS (AWAY
FROM LARGE WATER SOURCES). PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS
PARTICULAR OUTBREAK OF COLD AIR WILL BE INTENSE BUT BRIEF, AS THE
ONSET OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INITIATE A
NOTABLE WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
RISE INTO THE U40S-L50S. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE L-M 60S BY
THURSDAY AS LOWS RISE INTO THE U30S-L40S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS,
BEFORE PICKING UP BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z IN MOST AREAS TO AROUND 5
KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NW ALABAMA AROUND 12Z AT KMSL AND 14Z
AT KMSL. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY AT THE
TERMINALS. VFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. A PROB30 WAS KEPT FOR BOTH TERMINALS TO INCLUDE SHRA AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TSRA IN
THIS PROB30 GROUP AND SOME MORE PREDOMINANT RAIN AFTER 08/00Z AT
KMSL AND 08/03Z AT KHSV.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....70/DD
AVIATION...KTW
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