377
FXUS64 KHUN 211045
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
445 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 927 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND OUR
TENNESSEE COUNTIES.
- TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS FRIDAY, THE FIRST DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAIN
SOCKED IN WITH LOWS CLOUDS OR DENSE FOG. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT IS
LIKELY IN CULLMAN COUNTY, WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CLOSER TO 6 OR
7 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS FOG MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER,
MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 1/2 TO 1/4 OR LESS VISIBILITIES
THROUGH THEN. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ALL
COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ALABAMA EXCEPT CULLMAN COUNTY AND REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST. OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES ARE
ALSO INCLUDED IN THAT ADVISORY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER FORCING PUSHING BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. HOWEVER, MOST THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRONGER FORCING MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
BIRMINGHAM, AL AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW MODELS DO EXTEND THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THAT STRONGER FORCING INTO PORTIONS OF CULLMAN AND
POSSIBLY MARSHALL COUNTY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE
IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE INSTABILITY WILL BUILD THAT FAR
EAST BEFORE THE FORCING EXITS INTO GEORGIA. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP DURING THAT PERIOD, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE IT COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS LIKE DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT THIS TIME. WITH THE DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY DEEPER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, HIGHS SHOULD BE A TAD COOLER TODAY, ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 75 TOWARDS CULLMAN COUNTY. AT THIS TIME,
HELICITY LOOKS TOO MEAGER DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF A
TORNADO THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CST THU NOV 21 2025
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MS AND W TN. THE
STORMS ARRIVE INTO NW AL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT THE 00Z CAMS, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE TO A LACK OF FORECAST INSTABILITY AS BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 40-50 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR BETWEEN 25-35 KNOTS. IF
A STRONG STORM CAN DEVELOP IN A LOW INSTABILITY AND WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT, THEN THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME OF
SEVERE STORMS IS LOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE TORNADIC THREAT. MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA FROM NW TO
SE. THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL NOT BE MUCH COOLER, BUT SOME
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NW. AS A RESULT, DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
ON MONDAY, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOMETHING TO KEEP ON EYE ON FOR
THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. RIGHT
NOW THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE, BUT WIND SHEAR LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS. HOWEVER
ONCE AGAIN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE LOW TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
FOG, SOME LOCALLY DENSE HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
AL. EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AT BOTH HSV AND
MSL. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MORNING WITH SOME MID LEVELS CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD. SHOWERS DEVELOP AROUND LUNCHTIME WHICH WILL REDUCE BOTH
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THIS UPDATE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT FAR NW AL,
BUT TIMING APPEARS JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT 06Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...GH
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