522
FXUS64 KHUN 211721
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1121 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE OVERNIGHT; SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE LATE NIGHT COULD BECOME SEVERE.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
AS OF THE LATE MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED MOVING IN A
WEST TO EAST MANNER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
NOTED FROM AROUND WINCHESTER TO JUST EAST OF HUNTSVILLE TO DOUBLE
SPRINGS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MORE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON,
CONSIDERING LOTS OF MID LAYER MOISTURE (CLOUD COVERAGE), THAT
COULD DAMPEN POTENTIAL DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY.
THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE VIEW INDICATED MORE OF THIS
MOISTURE HEADED THIS WAY, WITH THE LOWER LEVEL WATER VAPOR VIEW
CONFIRMING MORE MID THAN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
DESPITE THE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, AREA TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION WERE UNSEASONABLY MILD, RANGING IN THE 60S WITH S-SW WINDS
OF 5-15 MPH. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES
LATER TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER, WITH A FEW MID 70S
POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS WERE INDICATING A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE LATE NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE IN INTENSITY, WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. AN OVERNIGHT TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
WITH LOW CAPE VALUES OF ~200 J/KG, LESS THAN 200 M/S 0-3KM SHEAR
AND ~50KT OF BULK SHEAR. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA IS FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS TO BEFORE
DAYBREAK EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE LATE NIGHT SHOULD RANGE
FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE DISTURBANCES SHOULD MOVE IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY SATURDAY AND ON SUNDAY, AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WITH MORE SUN RETURNING, UNSEASONABLY MILD/WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S,
WITH A FEW MID 70S POSSIBLE. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S. A BIT COOLER UNDER SUNNY
SKIES SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. SIMILARLY COOL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH
CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
ON MONDAY, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOMETHING TO KEEP ON EYE ON FOR
THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. RIGHT
NOW THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE, BUT WIND SHEAR LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS. HOWEVER
ONCE AGAIN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE LOW TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
AFTER TANKING OUT AT 1/4SM EARLIER THIS MORNING, KHSV HAS STARTED
TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR VSBY CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PROB30
GROUP FOR -SHRA WAS KEPT AS MODEL HINT AT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE TERMINAL IN THE AFTERNOON. THE TIME PERIOD OF
THIS PROB30 IS FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE SEEN AT
KMSL WITH RAIN ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THAT TERMINAL AND EXPECT
SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO THE KHSV TERMINAL IN THE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...KTW
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