331
FXUS64 KHUN 212030
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
230 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 230 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
A 300K ISENTROPIC VIEW (850MB) INDICATED BROAD UPGLIDE OCCURRING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FROM THIS UPWARD MOTION,
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE IN PROGRESS FROM OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL MS/AL
BORDER TO PORTIONS OF NE ALABAMA. NO LIGHTNING WAS OCCURRING AS OF
DISCUSSION ISSUANCE. EXTENSIVE LOWER ALTITUDE CLOUDS REMAINED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE DECK NOTED IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS, UNSEASONABLY MILD OR WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUED WITH MID
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S, AND SW WINDS OF 10-20
MPH.
PERIODS OF UPWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS WE GO
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND LATTER ONE
MOVING IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER SHOULD BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA IN THE LATE NIGHT. NEWER RUNS OF THE
HRRR AND RAP MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM.
THIS DISTURBANCE PER QPF FIELDS DOES NOT LOOK TOO SIGNIFICANT.
BUT IT MOVING ACROSS A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (CAPES IN THE
150-300 J/K) PLUS SRM VALUES IN THE 100-175 M/S RANGE COULD RESULT
IN SEVERE T-STORMS. THE ABOVE NOTED SHEAR COULD SUPPORT TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT. A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE PASSING
FEATURE. OTHERWISE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH MODERATE RAIN
CHANCES, AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE LOWER 60. AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
A COLD FRONT WEST OF THE DISTURBANCES SHOULD MOVE IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY SATURDAY AND ON SUNDAY, AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. WITH MORE SUN RETURNING, UNSEASONABLY MILD/WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S,
WITH A FEW MID 70S POSSIBLE. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S. A BIT COOLER UNDER SUNNY
SKIES SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. SIMILARLY COOL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH
CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
ON MONDAY, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOMETHING TO KEEP ON EYE ON FOR
THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. RIGHT
NOW THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE, BUT WIND SHEAR LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS. HOWEVER
ONCE AGAIN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE LOW TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY, AS
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. SHOWERS NOW IN
PROGRESS FROM CENTRAL MS TO NE AL SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY MVFR CIG INTO THE EVENING. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS.
THERE ARE T-STORM CHANCES, HOWEVER DID NOT MENTION THEM GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING. WITH THE SHOWERS, CIGS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE IFR WITH AT TIMES LOWER VSBY VALUES AS WELL. S-SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN BECOME
WESTERLY AROUND 10KT LATE SAT MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RSB
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