327
FXUS64 KHUN 241605
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1005 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1004 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH 1-2" OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
- A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC
OR 1 OUT OF 5) IS FORECAST LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
TUESDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN LATE THIS WEEK (ON AND AROUND
THANKSGIVING), WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER, CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS CLIMBING UP TO THE MID 50S
BY 00Z AND TO THE LOWER 60S BY 12Z -- AND PWATS INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.2" BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (ABOUT 85-90TH PERCENTILE FOR
NOVEMBER 25TH PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY). BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND A 40-50 KT LLJ PIVOTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY TAKE ON AN ORGANIZED APPEARANCE GIVEN THE STRONG BULK SHEAR
VALUES, BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG INVERSION WITH OVER 100
J/KG OF CINH AND NO SBCAPE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A LOW-END GUSTY
WIND THREAT, BUT LITTLE ELSE OTHER THAN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE
PIVOTING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 18Z. EXITING WITH IT
WILL BE THE INITIAL BROAD CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO TN/GA. THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE VEERED WITH HODOGRAPHS BECOMING A BIT
MORE STRAIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
THE SURFACE COLD ITSELF AND AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT CAN
DEVELOP ALONG IT FROM THE LATE MORNING THOUGH THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON (11 AM TO 3 PM TIMEFRAME). AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, THE
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE I-65 CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z AND EXITING
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AROUND 21Z. THIS MAY MEAN THAT IT
WILL BE VERY TOUGH TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED ACROSS NORTHWEST
ALABAMA BEFORE THE FRONT HAS PASSED AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SEVERE
THREAT MAY END UP BEING VERY LOW THERE.
THE AREAS WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH WILL BE IN A VERY NARROW WINDOW
DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 WHERE SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP/ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL,
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS -- WITH SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 300-500 J/KG EVOLVING DURING THIS WINDOW, ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA COUNTIES. WITH PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR (BULK
SHEAR ~ 50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SHEAR ~25-30 KTS), ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IS LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS
BEING THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE. MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WOULD
FAVOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN, BUT ANY
RIGHT MOVERS WILL NEED TO BE WATCH FOR A TORNADO THREAT. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY BY 21-22Z IN THE EAST
WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION -- BUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE'VE BEEN OF
LATE, DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
A DRIER, BUT MUCH COOLER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
REINFORCING THE COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES, WITH CLOUD FINALLY DISPERSING
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL SETUP QUITE THE AIR MASS SHIFT FOR
THANKSGIVING AND THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND OUR FLOW
ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL DIG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. ASIDE FROM
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES, IT SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER FOR
ANY OUTDOOR PLANS AS NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING SO BE SURE TO LAYER UP IF
HEADED OUTDOORS THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR BLACK FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GULF TURNS OUR FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO NORTHWEST AL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING
TO MEDIUM CHANCES AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM, BUT FOR NOW HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
VFR THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS
FROM THE SE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT KMSL AND 08Z AT KHSV.
PREDOMINANT -RA WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 07Z AT KMSL AND 09Z AT KHSV.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION IF THIS MIGHT BE TOO SOON, BUT THE STRENGTH
OF THE FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR IT. A TEMPO FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL,
POSSIBLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS, AND TS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEXT ISSUANCE AROUND AFTER 09Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...KTW
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