579
FXUS64 KHUN 241950
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
150 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1015 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH 1-2" OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
- A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC
OR 1 OUT OF 5) IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
TUESDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN LATE THIS WEEK (ON AND AROUND
THANKSGIVING), WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
CLOUD COVER IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT A CAP ON HEATING FOR
THE DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 70S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AND PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.2"
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (ABOUT 85-90TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER
25TH PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY).
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LIFT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND A 40-50 KT LLJ PIVOTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
TAKE ON AN ORGANIZED APPEARANCE GIVEN THE STRONG BULK SHEAR
VALUES, BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG INVERSION WITH OVER 100
J/KG OF CINH AND NO SBCAPE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A LOW-END GUSTY
WIND THREAT, BUT LITTLE ELSE OTHER THAN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND LIGHTNING. OVERALL, VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING BECOMING SEVERE (OR EVEN STRONG) DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
LIMITING FACTORS THROUGH 12Z.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE
PIVOTING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 18Z. EXITING WITH IT
WILL BE THE INITIAL BROAD CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO TN/GA. THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE VEERED WITH HODOGRAPHS BECOMING A BIT
MORE STRAIGHT IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
THE SURFACE COLD ITSELF AND AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT CAN
DEVELOP ALONG IT FROM THE LATE MORNING THOUGH THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON (11 AM TO 3 PM TIMEFRAME). AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, THE
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE I-65 CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z AND EXITING
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AROUND 21Z. THIS MAY MEAN THAT IT
WILL BE VERY TOUGH TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED ACROSS NORTHWEST
ALABAMA BEFORE THE FRONT HAS PASSED AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SEVERE
THREAT MAY END UP BEING VERY LOW THERE.
THE AREAS WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH WILL BE IN A VERY NARROW WINDOW
DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 WHERE SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP/ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL,
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS -- WITH SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 300-500 J/KG EVOLVING DURING THIS WINDOW, ESPECIALLY IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA COUNTIES. WITH PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR (BULK
SHEAR ~ 50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SHEAR ~25-30 KTS), ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IS LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS
BEING THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE. MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WOULD
FAVOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN, BUT ANY
RIGHT MOVERS WILL NEED TO BE WATCH FOR A TORNADO THREAT. THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY BY 21-22Z IN THE EAST
WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION -- BUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE'VE BEEN OF
LATE, DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
A DRIER, BUT MUCH COOLER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
REINFORCING THE COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES, WITH CLOUD FINALLY DISPERSING
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL SETUP QUITE THE AIR MASS SHIFT FOR
THANKSGIVING AND THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND OUR FLOW
ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL DIG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. ASIDE FROM
SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES, IT SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER FOR
ANY OUTDOOR PLANS AS NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING SO BE SURE TO LAYER UP IF
HEADED OUTDOORS THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR BLACK FRIDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GULF TURNS OUR FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO NORTHWEST AL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING
TO MEDIUM CHANCES AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM, BUT FOR NOW HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING, BEFORE CEILINGS
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AS WIDESPREAD SHRA AND A FEW TSRA PUSH INTO
THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD -- WITH AWWS AND
AMENDMENTS BEING POSSIBLE DURING THE 09Z TO 18Z WINDOW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...AMP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page