231
FXUS64 KHUN 252006
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
206 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
-STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-65 WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO.
-COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OUR SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR IN
NE AL PROMPTING SOME CIN TO REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY AND DISSUADING
THE NE PROGRESSION OF CAPE FROM CENTRAL AL. AS SUCH, DESPITE OUR
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR, OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY. FROM
12Z-18Z CAMS HAVE DECREASE OUR FORECAST SURFACE CAPE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM NEAR 1000 J/KG TO BELOW 500. WHILE THIS IS STILL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS, THE
PROBABILITY IN SEEING A SEVERE WARNING ISSUED HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. EVEN WITH THE DECREASING SEVERE THREAT, SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STILL PROGRESS THROUGH NE AL ALONG A PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS AND EXIT AROUND 6 PM.
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE HIGH 40S. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO
THE WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING. THIS WILL BEGIN
OUR CAA WITH DEW POINTS AND TEMPS SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN
DOMINANT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THIS WILL PRESENT A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE FROM OR RECENT WARM DAYS AS NNW FLOW
ALONG THE BASE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, NNW FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DROP BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. DEW
POINTS LOOK TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE 50S TO
THE HIGH 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SIMILAR DROP THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH OUR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S LIKELY BEING
OBSERVED BEFORE NOON WITH TEMPS STEADILY DROPPING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN THESE COOL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
AS WE DIVE INTO THE WEEKEND, DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 40S ON FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMING INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT, SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BRINGING MEDIUM CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHES
MORE EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING
INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES (50-60%) AHEAD OF IT MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. DUE TO THIS SYSTEM BEING ALMOST A WEEK OUT, WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HOWEVER, AS OF NOW,
LOOKS TO BE SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF YOU HAVE
POST- HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK, CHECK BACK IN FOR
FORECAST UPDATES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
STORMS INITIATE AGAIN AROUND NOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE
STORMS WILL INITIATE HOWEVER WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN HSV
SEEING STORM IMPACTS THAN MSL. SHOULD A STORM MOVE DIRECTLY OVER
THE RADAR BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR OR
BRIEFLY IFR WITH BOTH CONVECTIVE GUSTS AND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.
BEST TIMEFRAME FOR THIS WILL BE 19-23Z AT HSV. STORMS WILL EXIT
THE AREA BY 0Z, HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR AROUND 12Z TOMORROW WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR DECEMBER 2ND. PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING
1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD
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