230
FXUS64 KHUN 261535
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
935 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 935 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE 20S.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ANY
REMAINING LOW CLOUD COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY
TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. WINDS WILL SLACKEN ABRUPTLY
AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS
ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY INCREASE HIGH
CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DIP
INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT
WILL EXIT QUICKLY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IN LOW
LEVELS BECOMING MORE NEUTRAL DURING THE DAY, AND REMAINING FAIRLY
NEUTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EAST INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS. 5H FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL AS WELL, WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN VALLEY AREAS ON
THANKSGIVING DAY (LOWER 40S ATOP THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU). AFTER A
HARD FREEZE IN THE MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY MORNING, HIGHS ONLY REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S IN VALLEYS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (ONLY UPPER
30S ATOP THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU).
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
ONE MORE DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE -- THROUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
CAP ANY POTENTIAL HEATING AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S. A PATTERN CHANGE IS COMING LATE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER
TROUGH SWINGS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO ADVECT IN SOME RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF. FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL
GENERATE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT, THAT WILL BECOME MUCH
MORE NUMEROUS (60-70% CHANCE) SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 1" SEEM PLAUSIBLE
WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF "LULL" WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY, BEFORE AN ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG
THE GULF -- BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS (60-80%)
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME MINOR RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS. DENSE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE IN THE UPPER 40S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
MVFR CIGS SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 13Z AT KMSL AND 14Z AT KHSV.
UNTIL THEN MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH KEPT A TEMPO
FOR SCT050 BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z AT KHSV GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS AS
WELL. WINDS FROM AROUND 300 DEGREES ABOUT 10 MPH GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KTW
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