827
FXUS64 KHUN 262324
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
524 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 935 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE 20S.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING. OBS INDICATE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING AT 15-22KT AT THIS HOUR WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE 20S AND 30S. THE SKY HAS CLEARED AND EXPECT WINDS TO SLACKEN
ABRUPTLY AFTER SUNSET UPON THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT. THE
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT ARE HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL INCREASE
TOWARD DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THE GFS
IS ACTUALLY GENERATING 0.01 QPF IN NORTHWEST AL, BUT BELIEVE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. THAT BEING SAID, WILL ADVISE THE NEXT SHIFT TO
WATCH THIS TREND CLOSELY.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT
WILL EXIT QUICKLY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IN LOW
LEVELS BECOMING MORE NEUTRAL DURING THE DAY, AND REMAINING FAIRLY
NEUTRAL THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EAST INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS. 5H FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL AS WELL, WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN VALLEY AREAS ON
THANKSGIVING DAY (LOWER 40S ATOP THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU). AFTER A
HARD FREEZE IN THE MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY MORNING, HIGHS ONLY REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S IN VALLEYS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (ONLY UPPER
30S ATOP THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU).
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
UPDATE...
THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS REGARDING A WINDOW OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN
NORTHWEST AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE LOW
CHANCES OF -SHSN IN THESE INSTANCES, BUT AT THIS TIME, IT IS FAR
TOO EARLY TO PUT ALOT OF WEIGHT INTO THIS FORECAST. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL RUNS INDICATE VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES. STAY TUNED TO
FURTHER UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE -- THROUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
CAP ANY POTENTIAL HEATING AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S. A PATTERN CHANGE IS COMING LATE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER
TROUGH SWINGS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO ADVECT IN SOME RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF. FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL
GENERATE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT, THAT WILL BECOME MUCH
MORE NUMEROUS (60-70% CHANCE) SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 1" SEEM PLAUSIBLE
WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF "LULL" WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY, BEFORE AN ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG
THE GULF -- BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS (60-80%)
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME MINOR RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS. DENSE CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE IN THE UPPER 40S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KHSV AND KMSL AS CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ABOUT 25K FT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z ON THURSDAY.
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE NW, A LAYER OF
STRATUS WILL TEMPORARILY BRING CELINGS DOWN TO 12K FT THROUGH
ABOUT 16-18Z. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP BY ABOUT 18Z UP TO 10
KTS FROM THE NW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...SERRE
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