552
FXUS64 KHUN 271005
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
405 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 405 AM CST WED NOV 27 2025
- NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS
- NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SUNDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER IS ALL DEVELOPING A TROUGH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS SW FROM A STORM SYSTEM POUNDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL. THOUGH THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD AND NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS THIS FAR SOUTH, THERE
IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BELOW
700 MB. IN FACT EXTREMELY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE IN THAT PORTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH CLOUD CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS, THEY SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET.
MOST GUIDANCE MOVES THIS TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY EAST, EVEN THOUGH THE
UPPER LOW MORE MEANDERS NORTHEASTWARD OVER SE CANADA. EXPECT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING,
BUT BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON SHOULD EXIT THE AREA INTO GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS. EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SEEN
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AXIS. SO DESPITE THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON, HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50 DEGREE MARK. MAINLY EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 40S. IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
DOWN TODAY. THIS SHOULD DROP DEWPOINTS A BIT MORE THAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THINKS. THUS, WENT CLOSER TO RAP13, HRRR, ETC. FOR THE
FORECAST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH LOOK PROBABLE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST WED NOV 27 2025
CAA WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. SYNOPTICALLY
INFLUENCED RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS OFF
OF THE THE ROCKIES AND BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCES OF POPS LATER IN
THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO
FURTHER THE DRYNESS OUT THERE. THUS, LOWERED AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
AND RH VALUES CLOSER TO CONSHORT VALUES. THIS DROPS RH VALUES
SLIGHTLY BELOW 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY, AS IT BECOMES VERY BREEZY TO
WINDY THAT DAY AND FUELS COULD DRY OUT TO MORE CRITICAL LEVELS BY
THEN. EVEN COLDER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHTS
WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING (20S AND 30S). SUNNY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL COME BACK INTO THE
FORECAST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANGE IN WINDS FROM THE NW TO THE S/SE, HELPING
TO ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
REMEMBER DURING FREEZING WEATHER, MAKE SURE TO PROTECT PEOPLE,
PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN
0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX (DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
SUBFREEZING AIR AND IF IT OVERLAPS WITH ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE),
ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES. HOWEVER, ANY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AND LIGHT, WITH NO
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE ABOVE
FREEZING, AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
40S DURING THE DAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO FORM MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOST LIKELY BE TO OUR SOUTH, AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN
SEEMS MOST LIKELY AREA WIDE, BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE NBM SHOWS ROUGHLY A 30% PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE 1
INCH, AND HEAVIER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING A BRIEF
WINDOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS STILL VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
EACH MODEL RUN, SO THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. FLURRIES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. THE STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OUT QUICKLY, AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND SUNNIER,
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 50.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
CIGS (HIGH VFR IN NATURE) WILL PUSH INTO BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 06Z
(KHSV AT 08Z AND KMSL AT 07Z). NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS AFTER 14Z AND GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS, AS CLOUDS
DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM....AS
LONG TERM....IM
AVIATION...KTW
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