546
FXUS64 KHUN 272241
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
441 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 940 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
NO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST, PREVIOUS UPDATE REMAINS ON TRACK.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT NWS HUN!
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SITS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW. CAA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WHICH IS
BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS
5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COLDER
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING,
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
OVERNIGHT. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP AS YOU HEAD HOME THIS EVENING
FROM YOUR THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST BRINGING BACK A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS
BRINGS EASTERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. HENCE,
KEEPING THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ONCE
AGAIN ONLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ONE LAST SUBFREEZING
NIGHT IS IN STORE FRIDAY AS LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 20S. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. AS A RESULT, OUR SFC FLOW VEERS FROM THE EAST TO SSE
BRINGING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S. NOT NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY
NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. LOW
CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
WINTRY MIX, IN PARTICULAR FZRA, SEEMS UNLIKELY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR ARRIVING
BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWERED POPS BETWEEN
06-12Z MONDAY TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF FZRA IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL TO NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX (DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE SUBFREEZING AIR AND IF IT OVERLAPS WITH ANY
RESIDUAL MOISTURE), ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS WOULD BE VERY BRIEF
AND LIGHT, WITH NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
RISE ABOVE FREEZING, AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 40S DURING THE DAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO FORM MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOST LIKELY BE TO OUR SOUTH, AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN
SEEMS MOST LIKELY AREA WIDE, BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE NBM SHOWS ROUGHLY A 30% PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE 1
INCH, AND HEAVIER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING A BRIEF
WINDOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS STILL VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
EACH MODEL RUN, SO THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. FLURRIES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. THE STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OUT QUICKLY, AND PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND SUNNIER,
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 50.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 440 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....IM
AVIATION...RAD
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